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Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia.

ABSTRACT: Persistent heat extremes can have severe impacts on ecosystems and societies, including excess mortality, wildfires, and harvest failures. Here we identify Europe as a heatwave hotspot, exhibiting upward trends that are three-to-four times faster compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes over the past 42 years. This accelerated trend is linked to atmospheric dynamical changes via an increase in the frequency and persistence of double jet stream states over Eurasia. We find that double jet occurrences are particularly important for western European heatwaves, explaining up to 35% of temperature variability. The upward trend in the persistence of double jet events explains almost all of the accelerated heatwave trend in western Europe, and about 30% of it over the extended European region. Those findings provide evidence that in addition to thermodynamical drivers, atmospheric dynamical changes have contributed to the increased rate of European heatwaves, with implications for risk management and potential adaptation strategies.

SUBMITTER: Rousi E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9253148 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia.

Rousi Efi E Kornhuber Kai K Beobide-Arsuaga Goratz G Luo Fei F Coumou Dim D

Nature communications 20220704 1

Persistent heat extremes can have severe impacts on ecosystems and societies, including excess mortality, wildfires, and harvest failures. Here we identify Europe as a heatwave hotspot, exhibiting upward trends that are three-to-four times faster compared to the rest of the northern midlatitudes over the past 42 years. This accelerated trend is linked to atmospheric dynamical changes via an increase in the frequency and persistence of double jet stream states over Eurasia. We find that double je ...[more]

PMID: 35788585

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Project description:BackgroundAnaphylaxis is a growing public health problem in Australia. To determine the extent of the problem, we linked multiple health datasets to examine temporal trends in anaphylaxis events across the health system in Western Australia (WA).MethodsWe identified an anaphylaxis cohort from 1980 to 2020 using linked datasets from ambulance, emergency departments, hospital inpatients and deaths. Age-standardised anaphylaxis event rates were calculated from 2010 to 2020. Dataset-specific rates for anaphylaxis were also examined, to show differences in health care utilisation. Annual percent change in rates (2010-2019) were estimated using age-adjusted Poisson regression models.ResultsA total of 19 140 individuals (mean age 31 years; 51% female) experienced 24 239 anaphylaxis events between 2010 and 2020. From 2010 to 2019, the average annual percent increase (95% CI) in rates was 5.3% (4.8-5.8%), from 70.3 to 113.9, with rates reducing to 76.5/100 000 population in 2020. Adolescents and young adults aged 5-14 years and 15-24 years had the greatest increase of 6.9% (5.6-8.1%) and 6.8% (5.6-8.0) respectively, with those over 25 years increasing by approximately 5% per year and children 1-4 years showing the lowest annual increase of 2.6% (1.1-4.2%). The highest absolute rates were seen in under 1 year (269.7/100 000; 2019). There has been an acceleration of trends from 2015 to 2019, underpinned by large increases in 15-24 and 25-34 years. All databases, show similar increasing trends, with ambulance attendance (33.7 per 100 000), emergency presentation (89.8 per 100 000) and hospital admissions (46.2 per 100 000), for anaphylaxis highest in 2019. However, whilst ambulance and emergency presentations have grown by 8.9% (95%CI 7.9-9.8%) and 6.6% per year (95%CI 6.0-7.2%), respectively, hospitalisations appear to be steadying with only a 0.9% (95%CI 0.2-1.6%) yearly rise.ConclusionRates of anaphylaxis continue to increase, with WA having higher rates than previous estimates for Australia. Whilst rates are still high in infants, lower trends in children compared to older ages may indicate better prevention of allergy. Results show more people experiencing anaphylaxis now receive care in emergency and ambulance, rather than hospital. Further exploration of the patient care journey through prehospital and inpatient care is required, to understand the changing health demands of people who experience anaphylaxis.

Dataset Information

Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia.

Publications

Accelerated western European heatwave trends linked to more-persistent double jets over Eurasia.

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