Impact of demographic changes and screening colonoscopy on long-term projection of incident colorectal cancer cases in Germany: A modelling study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Demographic aging is expected to increase the number of colorectal cancer (CRC) cases in many countries. Screening for CRC can substantially reduce the disease burden but its use has remained rather limited in Germany. We aimed to quantify the expected impact of demographic aging on the future CRC burden and the potential to reduce that burden by increased use of screening colonoscopy offers in Germany.

Methods

We obtained sex- and age-specific data on colonoscopy use from AOK, the biggest health insurance provider in Germany, and combined these with the projected demographic development and current CRC incidence rates. We estimated the number of new CRC cases until 2060, assuming screening colonoscopy use to be constant or to increase to between 1·5 and 3 times t

SUBMITTER: Heisser T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9253902 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature