Modeling pandemic to endemic patterns of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using parameters estimated from animal model data.

ABSTRACT: The contours of endemic coronaviral disease in humans and other animals are shaped by the tendency of coronaviruses to generate new variants superimposed upon nonsterilizing immunity. Consequently, patterns of coronaviral reinfection in animals can inform the emerging endemic state of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We generated controlled reinfection data after high and low risk natural exposure or heterologous vaccination to sialodacryoadenitis virus (SDAV) in rats. Using deterministic compartmental models, we utilized in vivo estimates from these experiments to model the combined effects of variable transmission rates, variable duration of immunity, successive waves of variants, and vaccination on patterns of viral transmission. Using rat experiment-derived estimates, an endemic state achieved

SUBMITTER: Mullin S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9254158 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature