COVID-19 Pandemic Data Modeling in Pakistan Using Time-Series SIR.

ABSTRACT: Pakistan is currently facing the fourth wave of the deadly coronavirus, which was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. This work utilizes the epidemiological models to analyze Pakistan's COVID-19 data. The basic susceptible, infected, and recovered (SIR) model is studied assuming Bayesian and time-series SIR (tSIR) approaches. Many studies have been conducted from different perspectives, but to the best of our knowledge, no study is available using the SIR models for Pakistan. The coronavirus incubation period has been set to 14 days across the globe; however, this study noticed that the assumption of 14 days is not suitable for Pakistan's data. Furthermore, on the basis of R ₀, we infer that COVID-19 is not a pandemic in Pakistan, as it was in other nations,

SUBMITTER: Taimoor M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9256309 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature