Excess Mortality in Massachusetts During the Delta and Omicron Waves of COVID-19.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Faust JS
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9257575 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Excess Mortality in Massachusetts During the Delta and Omicron Waves of COVID-19.
Faust Jeremy Samuel JS Du Chengan C Liang Chenxue C Mayes Katherine Dickerson KD Renton Benjamin B Panthagani Kristen K Krumholz Harlan M HM
JAMA 20220701 1
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| S-EPMC7255340 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe US arrival of the Omicron variant led to a rapid increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections. While numerous studies report characteristics of Omicron infections among vaccinated individuals or persons with previous infection, comprehensive data describing infections among adults who are immunologically naive are lacking.ObjectivesTo examine COVID-19 acute and postacute clinical outcomes among a well-characterized cohort of unvaccinated and previously uninfected adults who contracted SARS-CoV-2 during the Omicron (BA.1/BA.2) surge, and to compare outcomes with infections that occurred during the Delta wave.Design, setting, and participantsThis prospective multisite cohort study included community-dwelling adults undergoing high-resolution symptom and virologic monitoring in 8 US states between June 2021 and September 2022. Unvaccinated adults aged 30 to less than 65 years without an immunological history of SARS-CoV-2 who were at high risk of infection were recruited. Participants were followed for up to 48 weeks, submitting regular COVID-19 symptom surveys and nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing. Data were analyzed from May to October 2022.ExposuresOmicron (BA.1/BA.2 lineages) vs Delta SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as a positive PCR test result that occurred during a period when the variant represented at least 50% of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the participant's geographic region.Main outcomes and measure(s)The main outcomes examined were the prevalence and severity of acute (≤28 days after onset) and postacute (≥5 weeks after onset) symptoms.ResultsAmong 274 participants who were immunologically naive (mean [SD] age, 49 [9.7] years; 186 [68%] female; 19 [7%] Hispanic participants; 242 [88%] White participants), 166 (61%) contracted SARS-CoV-2. Of these, 137 infections (83%) occurred during the Omicron-predominant period and 29 infections (17%) occurred during the Delta-predominant period. Asymptomatic infections occurred among 7% (95% CI, 3%-12%) of Omicron-wave infections and 0% (95% CI, 0%-12%) of Delta-wave infections. Health care use among individuals with Omicron-wave infections was 79% (95% CI, 43%-92%) lower relative to individuals with Delta-wave infections (P = .001). Compared with individuals infected during the Delta wave, individuals infected during the Omicron wave also experienced a 56% (95% CI, 26%-74%, P = .004) relative reduction in the risk of postacute symptoms and a 79% (95% CI, 54%-91%, P < .001) relative reduction in the rate of postacute symptoms.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest that among adults who were previously immunologically naive, few Omicron-wave (BA.1/BA.2) and Delta-wave infections were asymptomatic. Compared with individuals with Delta-wave infections, individuals with Omicron-wave infections were less likely to seek health care and experience postacute symptoms.
| S-EPMC9975921 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in significant excess mortality globally. However, the differences in excess mortality between the Omicron and non-Omicron waves, as well as the contribution of local epidemiological characteristics, population immunity, and social factors to excess mortality, remain poorly understood. This study aims to solve the above problems.MethodsWeekly all-cause death data and covariates from 29 countries for the period 2015-2022 were collected and used. The Bayesian Structured Time Series Model predicted expected weekly deaths, stratified by gender and age groups for the period 2020-2022. The quantile-based g-computation approach accounted for the effects of factors on the excess all-cause mortality rate. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using alternative Omicron proportion thresholds.ResultsFrom the first week of 2021 to the 30th week of 2022, the estimated cumulative number of excess deaths due to COVID-19 globally was nearly 1.39 million. The estimated weekly excess all-cause mortality rate in the 29 countries was approximately 2.17 per 100,000 (95% CI: 1.47 to 2.86). Weekly all-cause excess mortality rates were significantly higher in both male and female groups and all age groups during the non-Omicron wave, except for those younger than 15 years (P < 0.001). Sensitivity analysis confirmed the stability of the results. Positive associations with all-cause excess mortality were found for the constituent ratio of non-Omicron in all variants, new cases per million, positive rate, cardiovascular death rate, people fully vaccinated per hundred, extreme poverty, hospital patients per million humans, people vaccinated per hundred, and stringency index. Conversely, other factors demonstrated negative associations with all-cause excess mortality from the first week of 2021 to the 30th week of 2022.ConclusionOur findings indicate that the COVID-19 Omicron wave was associated with lower excess mortality compared to the non-Omicron wave. This study's analysis of the factors influencing excess deaths suggests that effective strategies to mitigate all-cause mortality include improving economic conditions, promoting widespread vaccination, and enhancing overall population health. Implementing these measures could significantly reduce the burden of COVID-19, facilitate coexistence with the virus, and potentially contribute to its elimination.
| S-EPMC10835930 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceThe U.S. arrival of the Omicron variant led to a rapid increase in SARS-CoV-2 infections. While numerous studies report characteristics of Omicron infections among vaccinated individuals and/or persons with a prior history of infection, comprehensive data describing infections among immunologically naïve adults is lacking.ObjectiveTo examine COVID-19 acute and post-acute clinical outcomes among a well-characterized cohort of unvaccinated and previously uninfected adults who contracted SARS-CoV-2 during the Omicron (BA.1/BA.2) surge, and to compare outcomes with infections that occurred during the Delta wave.DesignA prospective cohort undergoing high-resolution symptom and virologic monitoring between June 2021 and September 2022.SettingMultisite recruitment of community-dwelling adults in 8 U.S. states.ParticipantsHealthy, unvaccinated adults between 30 to 64 years of age without an immunological history of SARS-CoV-2 who were at high-risk of infection were recruited. Participants were followed for up to 48 weeks, submitting regular COVID-19 symptom surveys and nasal swabs for SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing.ExposuresOmicron (BA.1/BA.2 lineages) versus Delta SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined as a positive PCR that occurred during a period when the variant represented ≥50% of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants in the participant's geographic region.Main outcomes and measuresThe main outcomes examined were the prevalence and severity of acute (≤28 days post-onset) and post-acute (≥5 weeks post-onset) symptoms.ResultsAmong 274 immunologically naïve participants, 166 (61%) contracted SARS-CoV-2. Of these, 137 (83%) and 29 (17%) infections occurred during the Omicron- and Delta-predominant periods, respectively. Asymptomatic infections occurred among 6.7% (95% CI: 3.1%, 12.3%) of Omicron cases and 0.0% (95% CI: 0.0%, 11.9%) of Delta cases. Healthcare utilization among Omicron cases was 79% (95% CI: 43%, 92%, P =0.001) lower relative to Delta cases. Relative to Delta, Omicron infections also experienced a 56% (95% CI: 26%, 74%, P =0.004) and 79% (95% CI: 54%, 91%, P <0.001) reduction in the risk and rate of post-acute symptoms, respectively.Conclusions and relevanceThese findings suggest that among previously immunologically naïve adults, few Omicron (BA.1/BA.2) and Delta infections are asymptomatic, and relative to Delta, Omicron infections were less likely to seek healthcare and experience post-acute symptoms.
| S-EPMC9685683 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionThere were discrete outbreaks of SARS-CoV-2 infection in 2021 (Delta wave) and 2022 (Omicron wave) in Singapore, which affected patients receiving peritoneal dialysis (PD).MethodsThis study included all PD patients with COVID-19 infection from a single center between October 2021 and March 2022. The clinical presentation, management and outcomes of patients during the Delta and Omicron outbreaks were compared.ResultsA total of 44 PD patients developed SARS-CoV-2 infection (23 during the Delta wave and 21 during the Omicron wave): median age 66 (60.5-68.5) years, male (63.6%), Chinese ethnic (77.3%), diabetes mellitus (56.8%), and cardiovascular disease (45.5%). Approximately, 93.2% received two doses of the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine. Cough (81.8%) and fever (54.5%) were common presenting symptoms. Chest radiography showed ground glass opacity in 23.5% of patients, consolidation in 55.6%, and bilateral lung involvement in 33.3%. Eleven patients (25.6%) received antiviral therapy (Remdesivir), 7 (16.3%) received steroid, and 4 (9.3%) received monoclonal antibodies. Patients infected during the Delta wave were more likely to be hospitalized (73.9 vs 14.3%; p < 0.001) and receive antiviral therapy (39.1 vs 10.0%; p = 0.03) than those during the Omicron wave. The overall mortality rate was 11.4%, with significantly higher mortality during the Delta wave than during the Omicron wave (21.7 vs 0%; p = 0.03).ConclusionsThe mortality rate was high among infected PD patients during Delta wave of COVID-19 infection. However, during the Omicron wave, most infected patients were treated in the community with favorable outcomes.
| S-EPMC9948779 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUNDIncreased SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rates have been reported recently, with some locations basing reinfection on a second positive PCR test at least 90 days after initial infection. In this study, we used Johns Hopkins SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance data to evaluate the frequency of sequencing-validated, confirmed, and inferred reinfections between March 2020 and July 2022.METHODSPatients who had 2 or more positive SARS-CoV-2 tests in our system, with samples sequenced as a part of our surveillance efforts, were identified as the cohort for our study. SARS-CoV-2 genomes of patients' initial and later samples were compared.RESULTSA total of 755 patients (920 samples) had a positive test at least 90 days after the initial test, with a median time between tests of 377 days. Sequencing was attempted on 231 samples and was successful in 127. Rates of successful sequencing spiked during the Omicron surge; there was a higher median number of days from initial infection in these cases compared with those with failed sequences. A total of 122 (98%) patients showed evidence of reinfection; 45 of these patients had sequence-validated reinfection and 77 had inferred reinfections (later sequencing showed a clade that was not circulating when the patient was initially infected). Of the 45 patients with sequence-validated reinfections, 43 (96%) had reinfections that were caused by the Omicron variant, 41 (91%) were symptomatic, 32 (71%) were vaccinated prior to the second infection, 6 (13%) were immunosuppressed, and only 2 (4%) were hospitalized.CONCLUSIONSequence-validated reinfections increased with the Omicron surge but were generally associated with mild infections.FUNDINGFunding was provided by the Johns Hopkins Center of Excellence in Influenza Research and Surveillance (HHSN272201400007C), CDC (75D30121C11061), Johns Hopkins University President's Fund Research Response, Johns Hopkins Department of Pathology, and the Maryland Department of Health.
| S-EPMC9714778 | biostudies-literature
Project description:COVID-19 affects the respiratory parenchyma and may potentially contribute to the tendency of myasthenia gravis (MG) patients to develop respiratory failure. It is, therefore, important to study the safety of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 and to assess the risk of COVID-19 in MG patients. The safety of the three-dose BNT162b2 mRNA vaccine and outcomes of COVID-19 during the alpha, delta, and omicron waves were studied in MG patients as well as the rate of exacerbations and safety for a period of up to 6 weeks from each vaccine dose and patient morbidity and mortality during COVID-19 compared to the general population. 430 vaccine doses were administered across 150 patients. Thirteen patients (8.7%) complained of exacerbation within 6 weeks of each vaccine dose. Both MG onset rate and exacerbation rate were similar to previous years. MG exacerbation rate among fifteen patients who had COVID-19 was significantly higher (40%) compared to the rate following vaccination. During the alpha and delta waves, COVID-19 mortality and severe disease were significantly higher (26.7%) compared to the general population (0.96%). All of them were unvaccinated and had generalized MG. During the omicron wave, all the MG patients who contracted COVID-19 were vaccinated and had mild disease. We concluded that COVID-19 is hazardous for generalized MG patients, while the vaccination did not raise the risk for either exacerbation or new onset of MG and was associated with a reduced risk for severe COVID-19. Hence, it is recommended for generalized MG patients to get vaccinated.
| S-EPMC9361942 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In March 2020, in an attempt to slow the spread of Covid-19, several countries intervened by imposing strict lockdown measures that limited contact among people. In contrast, Sweden decided to not implement a mandatory lockdown and instead allowed people free choice on whether or not to follow the government recommendation to limit contact with others. Using the Synthetic Control Method, we estimate the causal effect of not implementing a mandatory lockdown in Sweden in the period from the end of February 2020 to the end of September 2020, a time when vaccines were as yet not available. We find that not imposing a mandatory lockdown resulted in a lower reduction of mobility and a substantial increase in mortality. Our results indicates that up to about 4411 of the 46554 deaths registered in Sweden during this period could have been avoided had Sweden implemented a mandatory lockdown. These results remain consistent when using two additional state-of-the-art estimation methods; the augmented synthetic control method and synthetic difference-in-difference.
| S-EPMC10618514 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Mexico, one of the countries severely affected by COVID-19, accumulated more than 5. 1 all-cause excess deaths/1,000 inhabitants and 2.5 COVID-19 confirmed deaths/1,000 inhabitants, in 2 years. In this scenario of high SARS-CoV-2 circulation, we analyzed the effectiveness of the country's vaccination strategy that used 7 different vaccines from around the world, and focused on vaccinating the oldest population first. We analyzed the national dataset published by Mexican health authorities, as a retrospective cohort, separating cases, hospitalizations, deaths and excess deaths by wave and age group. We explored if the vaccination strategy was effective to limit severe COVID-19 during the active outbreaks caused by Delta and Omicron variants. Vaccination of the eldest third of the population reduced COVID-19 hospitalizations, deaths and excess deaths by 46–55% in the third wave driven by Delta SARS-CoV-2. These adverse outcomes dropped 74–85% by the fourth wave driven by Omicron, when all adults had access to vaccines. Vaccine access for the pregnant resulted in 85–90% decrease in COVID-19 fatalities in pregnant individuals and 80% decrease in infants 0 years old by the Omicron wave. In contrast, in the rest of the pediatric population that did not access vaccination before the period analyzed, COVID-19 hospitalizations increased >40% during the Delta and Omicron waves. Our analysis suggests that the vaccination strategy in Mexico has been successful to limit population mortality and decrease severe COVID-19, but children in Mexico still need access to SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to limit severe COVID-19, in particular those 1–4 years old.
| S-EPMC9513220 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionCOVID-19 features changed with the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in adults. This study aims to describe COVID-19 symptoms in children and adolescents during the Parental, Delta, and Omicron eras.MethodsA single-centre, prospective observational study was conducted on individuals aged 0-20 years attending the University Hospital of Padua (Italy) from April 2020 to December 2022. COVID-19 cases were defined by positive SARS-CoV-2 molecular detection and/or serology; patient/family symptoms and virological positivity were considered to determine the infection onset. Variables were summarized and compared using appropriate tests of descriptive statistics.ResultsA total of 509 cases [46% female, median age eight years (IQR: 4-12)] were studied. Three-hundred-eighty-seven (76%), 52 (10%), and 70 (14%) subjects experienced COVID-19 during the Parental, Delta, and Omicron waves, respectively. All subjects developed an asymptomatic/mild COVID-19. Overall, the most frequent symptoms were fever (47%) and rhinitis (21%), which showed a significant increasing incidence from the Parental to Omicron waves (p < 0.001). Conversely, diarrhea was most common during the pre-Omicron eras (p = 0.03). Stratifying symptoms according to the age group, fever, rhinitis, and skin rashes were observed more frequently among infants/toddlers; conversely, fatigue was more common in children older than five years. The duration of symptoms was similar across different SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs); conversely, the number of symptoms varied according to the age group (p < 0.0001).DiscussionThis study showed differences in COVID-19 clinical presentation among infants, children, and adolescents and confirmed Omicron infection is more likely to be associated with upper respiratory symptoms. However, further population-based studies are needed to support these findings. In addition, active surveillance will play a crucial role in assessing the disease severity of future VOCs.
| S-EPMC10450148 | biostudies-literature