A CEEMD-ARIMA-SVM model with structural breaks to forecast the crude oil prices linked with extreme events.

ABSTRACT: This paper develops an integrated framework to forecast the volatility of crude oil prices by considering the impacts of extreme events (structural breaks). The impacts of extreme events are vital to improving prediction accuracy. Aiming to demonstrate the crude oil price fluctuation and the impacts of external events, this paper employs the complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD). It decomposes the crude oil price into some constituents at various frequencies to extract a market fluctuation, a shock from extreme events and a long-term trend. The shock from extreme events is found to be the most crucial element in deciding the crude oil prices. Then we combine the iterative cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) test with the Chow test to get the structural breaks and analyze

SUBMITTER: Cheng Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9261158 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature