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Evidence for influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) interact within their host posing the concern for impacts on heterologous viruses following vaccination. We aimed to estimate the population level impact of their interaction. We developed a dynamic age-stratified two-pathogen mathematical model that includes pathogen interaction through competition for infection and enhanced severity of dual infections. We used parallel tempering to fit its parameters to 11 years of enhanced hospital-based surveillance for acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) in children under 5 years old in Nha Trang, Vietnam. The data supported either a 41% (95%CrI: 36-54) reduction in susceptibility following infection and for 10.0 days (95%CrI 7.1-12.8) thereafter, or no change in susceptibility following infection. We estimate that co-infection increased the probability for an infection in <2y old children to be reported 7.2 fold (95%CrI 5.0-11.4); or 16.6 fold (95%CrI 14.5-18.4) in the moderate or low interaction scenarios. Absence of either pathogen was not to the detriment of the other. We find stronger evidence for severity enhancing than for acquisition limiting interaction. In this setting vaccination against either pathogen is unlikely to have a major detrimental effect on the burden of disease caused by the other.

SUBMITTER: Waterlow NR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9262224 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Evidence for influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study.

Waterlow Naomi R NR Toizumi Michiko M van Leeuwen Edwin E Thi Nguyen Hien-Anh HA Myint-Yoshida Lay L Eggo Rosalind M RM Flasche Stefan S

PLoS computational biology 20220624 6

Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) interact within their host posing the concern for impacts on heterologous viruses following vaccination. We aimed to estimate the population level impact of their interaction. We developed a dynamic age-stratified two-pathogen mathematical model that includes pathogen interaction through competition for infection and enhanced severity of dual infections. We used parallel tempering to fit its parameters to 11 years of enhanced hospital-based surveil ...[more]

PMID: 35749561

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Project description:The combined effects of the herbicide glyphosate and elevated temperature were studied on the tropical staghorn coral Acropora formosa, in Nha Trang bay, Vietnam. The corals were collected from two different reefs, one close to a polluted fish farm and one in a marine-protected area (MPA). In the laboratory, branches of the corals were exposed to the herbicide glyphosate at ambient (28 °C) and at 3 °C elevated water temperatures (31 °C). Effects of herbicide and elevated temperature were studied on coral bleaching using photography and digital image analysis (new colorimetric method developed here based on grayscale), chlorophyll a analysis, and symbiotic dinoflagellate (Symbiodinium, referred to as zooxanthellae) counts. All corals from the MPA started to bleach in the laboratory before they were exposed to the treatments, indicating that they were very sensitive, as opposed to the corals collected from the more polluted site, which were more tolerant and showed no bleaching response to temperature increase or herbicide alone. However, the combined exposure to the stressors resulted in significant loss of color, proportional to loss in chlorophyll a and zooxanthellae. The difference in sensitivity of the corals collected from the polluted site versus the MPA site could be explained by different symbiont types: the resilient type C3u and the stress-sensitive types C21 and C23, respectively. The additive effect of elevated temperatures and herbicides adds further weight to the notion that the bleaching of coral reefs is accelerated in the presence of multiple stressors. These results suggest that the corals in Nha Trang bay have adapted to the ongoing pollution to become more tolerant to anthropogenic stressors, and that multiple stressors hamper this resilience. The loss of color and decrease of chlorophyll a suggest that bleaching is related to concentration of chloro-pigments. The colorimetric method could be further fine-tuned and used as a precise, non-intrusive tool for monitoring coral bleaching in situ.

Project description:BackgroundInfants are at highest risk of pneumococcal disease. Their added protection through herd effects is a key part in the considerations on optimal pneumococcal vaccination strategies. Yet, little is currently known about the main transmission pathways to this vulnerable age group. Hence, this study investigates pneumococcal transmission routes to infants in the coastal city of Nha Trang, Vietnam.Methods and findingsIn October 2018, we conducted a nested cross-sectional contact and pneumococcal carriage survey in randomly selected 4- to 11-month-old infants across all 27 communes of Nha Trang. Bayesian logistic regression models were used to estimate age specific carriage prevalence in the population, a proxy for the probability that a contact of a given age could lead to pneumococcal exposure for the infant. We used another Bayesian logistic regression model to estimate the correlation between infant carriage and the probability that at least one of their reported contacts carried pneumococci, controlling for age and locality. In total, 1,583 infants between 4 and 13 months old participated, with 7,428 contacts reported. Few infants (5%, or 86 infants) attended day care, and carriage prevalence was 22% (353 infants). Most infants (61%, or 966 infants) had less than a 25% probability to have had close contact with a pneumococcal carrier on the surveyed day. Pneumococcal infection risk and contact behaviour were highly correlated: If adjusted for age and locality, the odds of an infant's carriage increased by 22% (95% confidence interval (CI): 15 to 29) per 10 percentage points increase in the probability to have had close contact with at least 1 pneumococcal carrier. Moreover, 2- to 6-year-old children contributed 51% (95% CI: 39 to 63) to the total direct pneumococcal exposure risks to infants in this setting. The main limitation of this study is that exposure risk was assessed indirectly by the age-dependent propensity for carriage of a contact and not by assessing carriage of such contacts directly.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that cross-sectional contact and infection studies could help identify pneumococcal transmission routes and that preschool-age children may be the largest reservoir for pneumococcal transmission to infants in Nha Trang, Vietnam.

Dataset Information

Evidence for influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study.

Publications

Evidence for influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study.

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