Project description:BackgroundThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a significant impact on global health, with millions of lives lost worldwide. Vaccination has emerged as a crucial strategy in mitigating the impact of the disease. This study aims to estimate the number of deaths averted through vaccination in Latin America and the Caribbean region (LAC) during the first year and a half of vaccination rollout (January 2021-May 2022).MethodsPublicly available data on COVID-19 deaths and vaccination rates were used to estimate the total number of deaths averted via vaccination in LAC. Using estimates for number of deaths, number of vaccinated, and vaccine effectiveness, a counterfactual estimated number of deaths observed without vaccination was calculated. Vaccine effectiveness estimates were obtained from published studies. The analysis focused on 17 countries in LAC and considered adults aged 18 years and older.ResultsAfter accounting for underreporting, the analysis estimated that >1.49 million deaths were caused by COVID-19 in the selected countries during the study period. Without vaccination, the model estimated that between 2.10 and 4.11 million COVID-19 deaths would have occurred. Consequently, vaccination efforts resulted in ∼610 000 to 2.61 million deaths averted.ConclusionsThis study represents the first large-scale, multicenter estimate of population-level vaccine impact on COVID-19 mortality in LAC. The findings underscore the substantial impact of timely and widespread vaccination in averting COVID-19 deaths. These results provide crucial support for vaccination programs aimed at combating epidemic infectious diseases in the region and future pandemics.
Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 reached Latin-American countries slightly later than European countries, around February/March, allowing some emergency preparedness response in countries characterized by low health system capacities and socioeconomic disparities.ObjectiveThis paper focuses on the first months of the pandemic in five Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. It analyses how the pre-pandemic context, and the government's responses to contain and mitigate the spread together with economic measures have affected the COVID-19 health outcomes.MethodsExtensive qualitative document analysis was conducted focused on publicly-available epidemiological data and federal and state/regional policy documents since the beginning of the pandemic.ResultsThe countries were quick to implement stringent COVID-19 measures and incrementally scaled up their health systems capacity, although tracing and tracking have been poor. All five countries have experienced a large number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19. The analysis on the excess deaths also shows that the impact in deaths is far higher than the official numbers reported to date for some countries.ConclusionDespite the introduction of stringent measures of containment and mitigation, and the scale up of health system capacities, pre-pandemic conditions that characterize these countries (high informal employment, and social inequalities) have undermined the effectiveness of the countries' responses to the pandemic. The economic support measures put in place were found to be too timid for some countries and introduced too late in most of them. Additionally, the lack of a comprehensive strategy for testing and tracking has also contributed to the failure to contain the spread of the virus.
Project description:BackgroundLatin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is among the most unequal regions in the world in terms of wealth and household income. Such inequalities have been shown to influence different outcomes during the COVID-19 pandemic, including the disruption of routine health services. The aim of this paper is to examine socioeconomic inequalities in household experiences of healthcare disruption in LAC countries from mid-2020 to late 2021.MethodsWe used household-level data from the COVID-19 High Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS), conducted in 14 LAC countries in one round in 2020 and 24 countries in two rounds in 2021. Ordinary least square and Logit multivariate regressions were conducted to examine the correlation between reported healthcare disruptions with household characteristics for 2020 and 2021. Since household income levels were not directly collected in the HPFS, we created an index of inequality and estimated the relative index of inequality.ResultsWhen analyzing 2020-2021 together, reported healthcare disruptions were lower if the respondent was employed or did not report lack of food in the last month; if the household had more people aged 65 or older or more rooms to sleep in. When analyzed separately in 2020 and 2021, having more people aged 65 or older or not experiencing food insecurity remained stable factors for lower odds of disruption in both years. In addition, being employed was associated with lower odds of disruption in 2020, while being male or having more rooms to sleep in were associated with lower odds of disruption in 2021. Regarding wealth differences in 2021 (it was not possible to compute it for 2020), households with the lowest wealth were 27.3% more likely to report a care disruption than households with the highest wealth.ConclusionsThe socioeconomic status of households in LAC was a relevant factor in explaining the disruption of healthcare during the COVID19 pandemic, with a clear social gradient where the wealthier a household, the less likely it was to experience disruption of care. Food security, employment, and gender policies should be integral to preparing for and responding to future shocks such as pandemics. Prioritizing the most affected populations, like the elderly during COVID-19, can enhance the health system effectiveness.
Project description:BackgroundThe coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19 pandemic) and associated responses have significantly disrupted healthcare. We aimed to estimate the magnitude of and reasons for households reporting healthcare disruption in 14 Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region countries from mid-2020 to mid-2021, and its relationship with country contextual factors.MethodsWe used COVID-19 high-frequency phone surveys (HFPS) conducted in 14 LAC countries in three rounds in 2020 and one in 2021. We classified the reasons reported for healthcare disruption into four groups: concerns about contracting COVID-19, healthcare supply constraints, financial reasons, and public health measures (PHMs). We used bivariate and multivariate regressions to examine correlates of reported healthcare disruption with the above groups and country context as control variables.ResultsOn average, 20% of households reported a disruption in May-June 2020 (45% to 10% at country level), dropping to 9% in June-July 2020 (31% to 3%) and July-August 2020 (26% to 3%), and declining to 3% in May-July 2021 (11% to 1%). The most common reason reported for disruption was healthcare supply constraints, followed by concerns about contracting COVID-19, PHM, and financial reasons. In multivariable regression analyses, we found that a higher incidence of new COVID-19 cases (regression coefficient (β) = 0.018, P < 0.01), stricter PHM (β = 0.002, P < 0.01), fewer hospital beds per population (β = -0.011, P < 0.01), and lower out-of-pocket health spending (β = -0.0008, P < 0.01) were associated with higher levels of disrupted care. A higher care disruption was associated with a lower gross domestic product (GDP) per person (β = -0.00001, P < 0.01) and lower population density (β = -0.056, P < 0.01).ConclusionsHealthcare services for households in LAC were substantially disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Findings about supply and financial constraints can inform the recovery of postponed healthcare services, while public health and contextual factors findings can inform future health system resilience efforts in LAC and elsewhere.
Project description:A range of public health and social measures have been employed in response to the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Yet, pandemic responses have varied across the region, particularly during the first 6 months of the pandemic, with Uruguay effectively limiting transmission during this crucial phase. This review describes features of pandemic responses which may have contributed to Uruguay's early success relative to 10 other LAC countries - Argentina, Chile, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Haiti, Honduras, Panama, Paraguay, and Trinidad and Tobago. Uruguay differentiated its early response efforts from reviewed countries by foregoing strict border closures and restrictions on movement, and rapidly implementing a suite of economic and social measures. Our findings describe the importance of supporting adherence to public health interventions by ensuring that effective social and economic safety net measures are in place to permit compliance with public health measures.
Project description:We conducted a multicountry retrospective study using data from COVID-19 national surveillance databases to analyze clinical profiles, hospitalization rates, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, utilization of ventilatory support, and mortality rates in five Latin American countries in the context of COVID-19 vaccination implementation. We analyzed the sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities, clinical outcomes, and vaccination status of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases from January 2021 to December 2022. We calculated the yearly and quarterly hospitalization rates per 1000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and ICU admissions, use of mechanical ventilators, and mortality rates per 1000 hospitalized cases, with their corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) of 38,209,397 confirmed COVID-19 cases. Rates of hospitalization, ICU admission, ventilatory support, and death were higher among males than among females (30.6 vs. 25, 275.9 vs. 218.8, 156.4 vs. 118.6, and 388.4 vs. 363.1 per 1000, respectively); higher in 2021 than in 2022 (51.6 vs. 20.2, 471.4 vs. 75.5, 230.1 vs. 46.7, and 307.9 vs. 230.3 per 1000, respectively); and higher in the gt;50 age group (range: 4.3–16.3, 35.5–149.5, 20.1–83.2, and 315–462.9, per 1000) than the lt;50 age group (range: 0.8–5.7, 3.0–49.3, 2.1–39.3, and 7.8–217.7 per 1000). Hypertension and diabetes mellitus were the most common comorbidities in Mexico and Colombia. Prevention and treatment strategies for these case profiles could bring benefits from a public health perspective.
Project description:BackgroundThe rising prevalence of cognitive impairment is an increasing challenge with the ageing of our populations but little is known about the burden in low- and middle- income Latin American and Caribbean countries (LAC) that are aging more rapidly than their developed counterparts. We examined life expectancies with cognitive impairment (CILE) and free of cognitive impairment (CIFLE) in seven developing LAC countries.MethodsData from The Survey on Health, Well-being and Ageing in LAC (N = 10,597) was utilised and cognitive status was assessed by the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). The Sullivan Method was applied to estimate CILE and CIFLE. Logistic regression was used to determine the effect of age, gender and education on cognitive outcome. Meta-regression models were fitted for all 7 countries together to investigate the relationship between CIFLE and education in men and women at age 60.ResultsThe prevalence of CI increased with age in all countries except Uruguay and with a significant gender effect observed only in Mexico where men had lower odds of CI compared to women [OR = 0.464 95% CInt (0.268 - 0.806)]. Low education was associated with increased prevalence of CI in Brazil [OR = 4.848 (1.173-20.044)], Chile [OR = 3.107 (1.098-8.793), Cuba [OR = 2.295 (1.247-4.225)] and Mexico [OR = 3.838 (1.368-10.765). For males, total life expectancy (TLE) at age 60 was highest in Cuba (19.7 years) and lowest in Brazil and Uruguay (17.6 years). TLE for females at age 60 was highest for Chileans (22.8 years) and lowest for Brazilians (20.2 years). CIFLE for men was greatest in Cuba (19.0 years) and least in Brazil (16.7 years). These differences did not appear to be explained by educational level (Men: p = 0.408, women: p = 0.695).ConclusionIncreasing age, female sex and low education were associated with higher CI in LAC reflecting patterns found in other countries.
Project description:In this paper, we measure the effect of the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic wave at the national and subnational levels in selected Latin American countries that were most affected: Brazil, Chile, Ecuador, Guatemala, Mexico, and Peru. We used publicly available monthly mortality data to measure the impacts of the pandemic using excess mortality for each country and its regions. We compare the mortality, at national and regional levels, in 2020 to the mortality levels of recent trends and provide estimates of the impact of mortality on life expectancy at birth. Our findings indicate that from April 2020 on, mortality exceeded its usual monthly levels in multiple areas of each country. In Mexico and Peru, excess mortality was spreading through many areas by the end of the second half of 2020. To a lesser extent, we observed a similar pattern in Brazil, Chile, and Ecuador. We also found that as the pandemic progressed, excess mortality became more visible in areas with poorer socioeconomic and sanitary conditions. This excess mortality has reduced life expectancy across these countries by 2-10 years. Despite the lack of reliable information on COVID-19 mortality, excess mortality is a useful indicator for measuring the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, especially in the context of Latin American countries, where there is still a lack of good information on causes of death in their vital registration systems.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s41118-021-00139-1.
Project description:Background and objectivesThe confinement by COVID-19 has affected the food chain and environments, which added to factors such as anxiety, frustration, fear and stress have modified the quality of the diet in the population around the world. The purpose of this study was to explore diet quality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 11 Latin American countries.MethodologyMulticentric, cross-sectional study. An online survey was applied to residents of 11 Latin-American countries, during April and May 2020, when confinement was mandatory. Diet quality was evaluated using a validated questionnaire.Result10,573 people participated in the study. The quality of the food by country shows that Colombia presented the best quality, while Chile and Paraguay presented the lowest. When comparing the overall results of diet quality by gender, schooling and age, women, people with more schooling and people under 30 years of age, presented better diet quality. The regression model showed that the variables associated with diet quality were: age (df = 3, F = 4. 57, p < 0.001), sex (df = 1, F = 131.01, p < 0.001), level of education (df = 1, F = 38.29, p < 0.001), perception of weight change (df = 2, F = 135.31, p < 0.001), basis services (df = 1, F = 8.63, p = 0.003), and quarantine (df = 1, F = 12.14, p = 0.001).ConclusionIt is necessary for governments to intervene to reverse these indicators, considering that inadequate feeding favors the appearance of no communicable diseases, which favor a higher risk of infection and worse prognosis with COVID-19.
Project description:The global impact of COVID-19 has challenged health systems across the world. This situation highlighted the need to develop policies based on scientific evidence to prepare the health systems and mitigate the pandemic. In this scenario, governments were urged to predict the impact of the measures they were implementing, how they related to the population's behavior, and the capacity of health systems to respond to the pandemic. The overarching aim of this research was to develop a customizable and open-source tool to predict the impact of the expansion of COVID-19 on the level of preparedness of the health systems of different Latin American and the Caribbean countries, with two main objectives. Firstly, to estimate the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 and the preparedness and response capacity of health systems in those countries, based on different scenarios and public policies implemented to control, mitigate, or suppress the spread of the epidemic. Secondly, to facilitate policy makers' decisions by allowing the model to adjust its parameters according to the specific pandemic trajectory and policy context. How many infections and deaths are estimated per day?; When are the peaks of cases and deaths expected, according to the different scenarios?; Which occupancy rate will ICU services have along the epidemiological curve?; When is the optimal time increase restrictions in order to prevent saturation of ICU beds?, are some of the key questions that the model can respond, and is publicly accessible through the following link: http://shinyapps.iecs.org.ar/modelo-covid19/. This open-access and open code tool is based on a SEIR model (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Recovered). Using a deterministic epidemiological model, it allows to frame potential scenarios for long periods, providing valuable information on the dynamics of transmission and how it could impact on health systems through multiple customized configurations adapted to specific characteristics of each country.