Dataset Information

VOC-alarm: mutation-based prediction of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

ABSTRACT:

Summary

Mutation is the key for a variant of concern (VOC) to overcome selective pressures, but this process is still unclear. Understanding the association of the mutational process with VOCs is an unmet need. Motivation: Here, we developed VOC-alarm, a method to predict VOCs and their caused COVID surges, using mutations of about 5.7 million SARS-CoV-2 complete sequences. We found that VOCs rely on lineage-level entropy value of mutation numbers to compete with other variants, suggestive of the importance of population-level mutations in the virus evolution. Thus, we hypothesized that VOCs are a result of a mutational process across the globe. Results: Analyzing the mutations from January 2020 to December 2021, we simulated the mutational process by estimating the pace of evolution, and thus divided the time period, January 2020-March 2022, into eight stages. We predicted Alpha, Delta, Delta Plus (AY.4.2) and Omicron (B.1.1.529) by their mutational entropy values in the Stages I, III, V and VII with accelerated paces, respectively. In late November 2021, VOC-alarm alerted that Omicron strongly competed with Delta and Delta plus to become a highly transmissible variant. Using simulated data, VOC-alarm also predicted that Omicron could lead to another COVID surge from January 2022 to March 2022.

Availability and implementation

Our software implementation is available at https://github.com/guangxujin/VOC-alarm.

Supplementary information

Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

SUBMITTER: Zhao H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9272809 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

VOC-alarm: mutation-based prediction of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

Zhao Hongyu H Han Kun K Gao Chao C Madhira Vithal V Topaloglu Umit U Lu Yong Y Jin Guangxu G

Bioinformatics (Oxford, England) 20220701 14

<h4>Summary</h4>Mutation is the key for a variant of concern (VOC) to overcome selective pressures, but this process is still unclear. Understanding the association of the mutational process with VOCs is an unmet need. Motivation: Here, we developed VOC-alarm, a method to predict VOCs and their caused COVID surges, using mutations of about 5.7 million SARS-CoV-2 complete sequences. We found that VOCs rely on lineage-level entropy value of mutation numbers to compete with other variants, suggesti ...[more]

PMID: 35640977

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Project description:The ongoing prevailing COVID-19 pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 is becoming one of the major global health concerns worldwide. The SARS-CoV-2 genome encodes spike (S) glycoprotein that plays a very crucial role in viral entry into the host cell via binding of its receptor binding domain (RBD) to the host angiotensin converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) receptor. The continuously evolving SARS-CoV-2 genome results in more severe and transmissible variants characterized by the emergence of novel mutations called 'variants of concern' (VOC). The currently designated alpha, beta, gamma, delta and omicron VOC are the focus of this study due to their high transmissibility, increased virulence, and concerns for decreased effectiveness of the available vaccines. In VOC, the spike (S) gene and other non-structural protein mutations may affect the efficacies of the approved COVID-19 vaccines. To understand the diversity of SARS-CoV-2, several studies have been performed on a limited number of sequences. However, only a few studies have focused on codon usage bias (CUBs) pattern analysis of all the VOC strains. Therefore, to evaluate the evolutionary divergence of all VOC S-genes, we performed CUBs analysis on 300,354 sequences to understand the evolutionary relationship with its adaptation in different hosts, i.e., humans, bats, and pangolins. Base composition and RSCU analysis revealed the presence of 20 preferred AU-ended and 10 under-preferred GC-ended codons. In addition, CpG was found to be depleted, which may be attributable to the adaptive response by viruses to escape from the host defense process. Moreover, the ENC values revealed a higher bias in codon usage in the VOC S-gene. Further, the neutrality plot analysis demonstrated that S-genes analyzed in this study are under 83.93% influence of natural selection, suggesting its pivotal role in shaping the CUBs. The CUBs pattern of S-genes was found to be very similar among all the VOC strains. Interestingly, we observed that VOC strains followed a trend of antagonistic codon usage with respect to the human host. The identified CUBs divergence would help to understand the virus evolution and its host adaptation, thus help design novel vaccine strategies against the emerging VOC strains. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report for identifying the evolution of CUBs pattern in all the currently identified VOC.

Dataset Information

VOC-alarm: mutation-based prediction of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

Summary

Availability and implementation

Supplementary information

Publications

VOC-alarm: mutation-based prediction of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern.

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