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A model-based opinion dynamics approach to tackle vaccine hesitancy.

ABSTRACT: Uncovering the mechanisms underlying the diffusion of vaccine hesitancy is crucial in fighting epidemic spreading. Toward this ambitious goal, we treat vaccine hesitancy as an opinion, whose diffusion in a social group can be shaped over time by the influence of personal beliefs, social pressure, and other exogenous actions, such as pro-vaccine campaigns. We propose a simple mathematical model that, calibrated on survey data, can predict the modification of the pre-existing individual willingness to be vaccinated and estimate the fraction of a population that is expected to adhere to an immunization program. This work paves the way for enabling tools from network control towards the simulation of different intervention plans and the design of more effective targeted pro-vaccine campaigns. Compared to traditional mass media alternatives, these model-based campaigns can exploit the structural properties of social networks to provide a potentially pivotal advantage in epidemic mitigation.

SUBMITTER: Ancona C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9276809 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A model-based opinion dynamics approach to tackle vaccine hesitancy.

Ancona Camilla C Iudice Francesco Lo FL Garofalo Franco F De Lellis Pietro P

Scientific reports 20220712 1

Uncovering the mechanisms underlying the diffusion of vaccine hesitancy is crucial in fighting epidemic spreading. Toward this ambitious goal, we treat vaccine hesitancy as an opinion, whose diffusion in a social group can be shaped over time by the influence of personal beliefs, social pressure, and other exogenous actions, such as pro-vaccine campaigns. We propose a simple mathematical model that, calibrated on survey data, can predict the modification of the pre-existing individual willingnes ...[more]

PMID: 35821508

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Project description:BackgroundThe recent human monkeypox virus (HMPXV) outbreak in non-endemic countries that started in May 2022 has raised concerns among public health authorities worldwide. Healthcare workers (HCWs) play a decisive role during epidemics in transmitting accurate information to the public and motivating them to pursue protective behaviours, including immunisation.MethodsA cross-sectional survey-based study was conducted in the Czech Republic in September 2022 to evaluate HMPXV-related knowledge and vaccination perceptions among HCWs. The study utilised a digital self-administered questionnaire (SAQ) to collect data from the target population. The proposed SAQ inquired about participants' sociodemographic and anamnestic characteristics, perceived knowledge of HMPXV, factual knowledge, and vaccination perceptions according to the health belief model (HBM).ResultsA total of 341 participants were included in this study; most of them were females (88.9%), allied HCWs (89.4%), heterosexuals (87.1%), married (61.9%), and vaccinated against COVID-19 (91.2%). Only 8.8% of the participants agreed to receive vaccination against HMPXV; 44.9% rejected it, while 46.3% were hesitant. While digital news portals (47.5%) and social media (25.8%) were among the most utilised sources of information about HMPXV, the scientific journals (5.6%), ECDC (5%), and the U.S. CDC (1.5%) were the least common sources. The participants demonstrated suboptimal levels of factual knowledge, especially regarding HMPXV vaccines (1.5 ± 1.2 (0-4)) and treatments (0.9 ± 0.9 (0-4)). Additionally, several misconceptions were detectable among the participants, regarding topics such as the availability of effective vaccines and antivirals against HMPXV, the risk of vertical transmission, and homosexual stigmatisation. The HBM indicated that the cues to action and perceived susceptibility were the most important constructs to predict HMPXV vaccine acceptance.Conclusionsthe findings of this study call upon public health practitioners and health policymakers in the Czech Republic to act accordingly in order to determine the drivers of vaccine hesitancy among Czech HCWs. Dedicated educational campaigns should aim to counter the HCWs' misconceptions around HMPXV, and future studies should aim to explore the prevalence and drivers of HMPXV vaccine hesitancy among the general population.

Project description:BackgroundFactors influencing the health of populations are subjects of interdisciplinary study. However, datasets relevant to public health often lack interdisciplinary breath. It is difficult to combine data on health outcomes with datasets on potentially important contextual factors, like political violence or development, due to incompatible levels of geographic support; differing data formats and structures; differences in sampling procedures and wording; and the stability of temporal trends. We present a computational package to combine spatially misaligned datasets, and provide an illustrative analysis of multi-dimensional factors in health outcomes.MethodsWe rely on a new software toolkit, Sub-National Geospatial Data Archive (SUNGEO), to combine data across disciplinary domains and demonstrate a use case on vaccine hesitancy in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs). We use data from the World Bank's High Frequency Phone Surveys (HFPS) from Kenya, Indonesia, and Malawi. We curate and combine these surveys with data on political violence, elections, economic development, and other contextual factors, using SUNGEO. We then develop a stochastic model to analyze the integrated data and evaluate 1) the stability of vaccination preferences in all three countries over time, and 2) the association between local contextual factors and vaccination preferences.ResultsIn all three countries, vaccine-acceptance is more persistent than vaccine-hesitancy from round to round: the long-run probability of staying vaccine-acceptant (hesitant) was 0.96 (0.65) in Indonesia, 0.89 (0.21) in Kenya, and 0.76 (0.40) in Malawi. However, vaccine acceptance was significantly less durable in areas exposed to political violence, with percentage point differences (ppd) in vaccine acceptance of -10 (Indonesia), -5 (Kenya), and -64 (Malawi). In Indonesia and Kenya, although not Malawi, vaccine acceptance was also significantly less durable in locations without competitive elections (-19 and -6 ppd, respectively) and in locations with more limited transportation infrastructure (-11 and -8 ppd).ConclusionWith SUNGEO, researchers can combine spatially misaligned and incompatible datasets. As an illustrative example, we find that vaccination hesitancy is correlated with political violence, electoral uncompetitiveness and limited access to public goods, consistent with past results that vaccination hesitancy is associated with government distrust.

Dataset Information

A model-based opinion dynamics approach to tackle vaccine hesitancy.

Publications

A model-based opinion dynamics approach to tackle vaccine hesitancy.

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