A method to predict the response to directional selection using a Kalman filter.

ABSTRACT: Predicting evolution remains challenging. The field of quantitative genetics provides predictions for the response to directional selection through the breeder's equation, but these predictions can have errors. The sources of these errors include omission of traits under selection, inaccurate estimates of genetic variance, and nonlinearities in the relationship between genetic and phenotypic variation. Previous research showed that the expected value of these prediction errors is often not zero, so predictions are systematically biased. Here, we propose that this bias, rather than being a nuisance, can be used to improve the predictions. We use this to develop a method to predict evolution, which is built on three key innovations. First, the method predicts change as the breeder's equation

SUBMITTER: Milocco L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9282428 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature