Modeling the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia: a comparison of three analytic approaches.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

To facilitate the development of a COVID-19 predictive model in Croatia by analyzing three different methodological approaches.

Method

We used the historical data to explore the fit of the extended SEIRD compartmental model, the Heidler function, an exponential approximation in analyzing electromagnetic phenomena related to lightning strikes, and the Holt-Winters smoothing (HWS) for short-term epidemic predictions. We also compared various methods for the estimation of R0.

Results

The R0 estimates for Croatia varied from 2.09 (95% CI 1.77-2.40) obtained by using an empirical post-hoc method to 2.28 (95% CI 2.27-2.28) when we assumed an exponential outbreak at the very beginning of the COVID-19 epidemic in Croatia. Although the SEIRD model provided a good fit for t

SUBMITTER: Lojic Kapetanovic A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9284011 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature