Using near-term forecasts and uncertainty partitioning to inform prediction of oligotrophic lake cyanobacterial density.

ABSTRACT: Near-term ecological forecasts provide resource managers advance notice of changes in ecosystem services, such as fisheries stocks, timber yields, or water quality. Importantly, ecological forecasts can identify where there is uncertainty in the forecasting system, which is necessary to improve forecast skill and guide interpretation of forecast results. Uncertainty partitioning identifies the relative contributions to total forecast variance introduced by different sources, including specification of the model structure, errors in driver data, and estimation of current states (initial conditions). Uncertainty partitioning could be particularly useful in improving forecasts of highly variable cyanobacterial densities, which are difficult to predict and present a persistent challenge for la

SUBMITTER: Lofton ME 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9287081 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature