Mathematical modelling of the progression of active tuberculosis: Insights from fluorography data.

ABSTRACT: Little is known about the dynamics of the early stages of untreated active pulmonary tuberculosis: unknown are both the rates of progression and the model "scheme". The "parallel" scheme assumes that infectiousness of tuberculosis cases is effectively predefined at the onset of the disease, and the "serial" scheme considers all cases to be non-infectious at the onset, with some of them later becoming infectious. Our aim was to estimate the progression of the early stages of pulmonary tuberculosis using data from a present-day population. We used the routine notification data from Moscow, Russia, 2013-2018 that contained the results and time of the last fluorographic screening preceding the detection of tuberculosis cases. This provided time limits on the duration of untreated tuberculosis.

SUBMITTER: Avilov KK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9287187 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature