Dataset Information

Responding to eruptive transitions during the 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufriere volcano, St. Vincent.

ABSTRACT: A critical challenge during volcanic emergencies is responding to rapid changes in eruptive behaviour. Actionable advice, essential in times of rising uncertainty, demands the rapid synthesis and communication of multiple datasets with prognoses. The 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano exemplifies these challenges: a series of explosions from 9-22 April 2021 was preceded by three months of effusive activity, which commenced with a remarkably low level of detected unrest. Here we show how the development of an evolving conceptual model, and the expression of uncertainties via both elicitation and scenarios associated with this model, were key to anticipating this transition. This not only required input from multiple monitoring datasets but contextualisation via state-of-the-art hazard assessments, and evidence-based knowledge of critical decision-making timescales and community needs. In addition, we share strategies employed as a consequence of constraints on recognising and responding to eruptive transitions in a resource-constrained setting, which may guide similarly challenged volcano observatories worldwide.

SUBMITTER: Joseph EP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9287448 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Responding to eruptive transitions during the 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent.

Joseph E P EP Camejo-Harry M M Christopher T T Contreras-Arratia R R Edwards S S Graham O O Johnson M M Juman A A Latchman J L JL Lynch L L Miller V L VL Papadopoulos I I Pascal K K Robertson R R Ryan G A GA Stinton A A Grandin R R Hamling I I Jo M-J MJ Barclay J J Cole P P Davies B V BV Sparks R S J RSJ

Nature communications 20220715 1

A critical challenge during volcanic emergencies is responding to rapid changes in eruptive behaviour. Actionable advice, essential in times of rising uncertainty, demands the rapid synthesis and communication of multiple datasets with prognoses. The 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano exemplifies these challenges: a series of explosions from 9-22 April 2021 was preceded by three months of effusive activity, which commenced with a remarkably low level of detected unrest. Here we show how ...[more]

PMID: 35840594

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Project description:Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion, France, erupted between the 2 and 6 April 2020, one of a series of eruptive phases which occur typically two or three times per year. Here, we use back trajectory analysis of satellite data from the TROPOMI instrument to determine that gas emissions during the June 2020 eruption were of unusually high intensity and altitude, producing 34.9 ± 17.4 kt of SO2 and plume heights up to 5 km a.s.l. The early stages of the eruption (2-4 April 2020) were characterised by relatively low SO2 emission rates despite strong low frequency tremor (LFT); the latter phase followed an increase in intensity and explosivity in the early hours of 5 April 2020. This period included lava fountaining, significantly increased SO2 emission rates, increased high frequency tremor (HFT) and decreased LFT. Using the PlumeTraj back trajectory analysis toolkit, we found the peak SO2 emission rate was 284 ± 130 kg/s on the 6 April. The plume altitude peaked at ~ 5 km a.s.l. on 5 April, in the hours following a sudden increase in explosivity, producing one of the tallest eruption columns recorded at Piton de la Fournaise. PlumeTraj allowed us to discriminate each day's SO2, which otherwise would have led to a mass overestimate due to the plumes remaining visible for more than 24 h. The eruption exhibited a remarkable decoupling and anti-correlation between the intensity of the LFT signal and that of the magma and gas emission rates. LFT intensity peaked during the first phase with low magma and SO2 emissions, but quickly decreased during the second phase, replaced by unusually strong HFT. We conclude that the observation of strong HFT is associated with higher intensity of eruption, degassing, and greater height of neutral buoyancy of the plume, which may provide an alert to the presence of greater hazards produced by higher intensity eruptive activity. This might be particularly useful when direct visual observation is prevented by meteorological conditions. This eruption shows the importance of combining multiple data sets when monitoring volcanoes. Combining gas and seismic data sets allowed for a much more accurate assessment of the eruption than either could have done alone.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00445-023-01628-1.

Dataset Information

Responding to eruptive transitions during the 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufriere volcano, St. Vincent.

Publications

Responding to eruptive transitions during the 2020-2021 eruption of La Soufrière volcano, St. Vincent.

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