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PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer.

ABSTRACT: The prognostic performance of PREDICT in patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer (EBC) treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies is unclear. Therefore, we investigated its prognostic performance using data extracted from ALTTO, a phase III trial evaluating adjuvant lapatinib ± trastuzumab vs. trastuzumab alone in patients with HER2-positive EBC. Our analysis included 2794 patients. After a median follow-up of 6.0 years (IQR, 5.8-6.7), 182 deaths were observed. Overall, PREDICT underestimated 5-year OS by 6.7% (95% CI, 5.8-7.6): observed 5-year OS was 94.7% vs. predicted 88.0%. The underestimation was consistent across all subgroups, including those according to the type of anti HER2-therapy. The highest absolute differences were observed for patients with hormone receptor negative-disease, nodal involvement, and large tumor size (13.0%, 15.8%, and 15.3%, respectively). AUC under the ROC curve was 73.7% (95% CI 69.7-77.8) in the overall population, ranging between 61.7% and 77.7% across the analyzed subgroups. In conclusion, our analysis showed that PREDICT highly underestimated OS in HER2-positive EBC. Hence, it should be used with caution to give prognostic estimation to HER2-positive EBC patients treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies.

SUBMITTER: Agostinetto E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9300724 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer.

Agostinetto Elisa E Ameye Lieveke L Martel Samuel S Aftimos Philippe P Pondé Noam N Maurer Christian C El-Abed Sarra S Wang Yingbo Y Vicente Malou M Chumsri Saranya S Bliss Judith J Kroep Judith J Colleoni Marco M Petrelli Fausto F Del Mastro Lucia L Moreno-Aspitia Alvaro A Piccart Martine M Paesmans Marianne M de Azambuja Evandro E Lambertini Matteo M

NPJ breast cancer 20220720 1

The prognostic performance of PREDICT in patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer (EBC) treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies is unclear. Therefore, we investigated its prognostic performance using data extracted from ALTTO, a phase III trial evaluating adjuvant lapatinib ± trastuzumab vs. trastuzumab alone in patients with HER2-positive EBC. Our analysis included 2794 patients. After a median follow-up of 6.0 years (IQR, 5.8-6.7), 182 deat ...[more]

PMID: 35859079

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Project description:BackgroundIn premenopausal patients with human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive early breast cancer, the gonadotoxicity of trastuzumab and lapatinib remains largely uncertain, and the prognostic effect of treatment-related amenorrhea (TRA) is unknown.MethodsIn the Adjuvant Lapatinib and/or Trastuzumab Treatment Optimization (BIG 2-06) phase III trial, HER2-positive early breast cancer patients were randomized (1:1:1:1) to receive one year of trastuzumab, lapatinib, their sequence, or their combination. As per study protocol, menopausal status was collected in all patients at random assignment and at week 37 visit. We investigated TRA rates and whether TRA in patients with hormone receptor-positive and -negative tumors would impact disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Landmark and time-dependent modeling were used to account for guarantee-time bias. All statistical tests were two-sided.ResultsA total of 2862 premenopausal women were included, of whom 1679 (58.7%) had hormone receptor-positive disease. Median age was 43 (interquartile range = 38-47) years. Similar TRA rates were observed in the trastuzumab (72.6%), lapatinib (74.0%), trastuzumab→lapatinib (72.1%), and trastuzumab+lapatinib (74.8%) arms (P = .64). The association between TRA and survival outcomes differed according to hormone-receptor status (Pinteraction for DFS = .007; Pinteraction for OS = .003). For hormone receptor-positive patients, the TRA cohort had statistically significantly better DFS (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 0.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.45 to 0.76) and OS (aHR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.40 to 0.99) than the no TRA cohort. No difference was observed in hormone receptor-negative patients.ConclusionsIn this unplanned analysis, no association between TRA rate and type of anti-HER2 treatment was observed. TRA was associated with statistically significant survival benefits in premenopausal hormone receptor-positive/HER2-positive early breast cancer patients.

Dataset Information

PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer.

Publications

PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer.

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