Modelling the impact of Omicron and emerging variants on SARS-CoV-2 transmission and public health burden.

ABSTRACT:

Background

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern, such as Omicron (B.1.1.529), continue to emerge. Assessing the impact of their potential viral properties on the probability of future transmission dominance and public health burden is fundamental in guiding ongoing COVID-19 control strategies.

Methods

With an individual-based transmission model, OpenCOVID, we simulated three viral properties; infectivity, severity, and immune-evading ability, all relative to the Delta variant, to identify thresholds for Omicron's or any emerging VOC's potential future dominance, impact on public health, and risk to health systems. We further identify for which combinations of viral properties current interventions would be sufficient to control transmission.

Results

We show that, with first

SUBMITTER: Le Rutte EA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9311342 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature