A Poisson-multinomial spatial model for simultaneous outbreaks with application to arboviral diseases.

ABSTRACT: Dengue, Zika, and chikungunya are arboviral diseases (AVD) transmitted mainly by Aedes aegypti. Rio de Janeiro city, Brazil, has been endemic for dengue for over 30 years, and experienced the first joint epidemic of the three diseases between 2015-2016. They present similar symptoms and only a small proportion of cases are laboratory-confirmed. These facts lead to potential misdiagnosis and, consequently, uncertainty in the registration of the cases. We have available the number of cases of each disease for the n=160 neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro. We propose a Poisson model for the total number of cases of Aedes-borne diseases and, conditioned on the total, we assume a multinomial model for the allocation of the number of cases of each of the diseases across the neighborhoo

SUBMITTER: Schmidt AM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9315186 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature