Minimising the use of costly control measures in an epidemic elimination strategy: A simple mathematical model.

ABSTRACT: Countries such as New Zealand, Australia and Taiwan responded to the Covid-19 pandemic with an elimination strategy. This involves a combination of strict border controls with a rapid and effective response to eliminate border-related re-introductions. An important question for decision makers is, when there is a new re-introduction, what is the right threshold at which to implement strict control measures designed to reduce the effective reproduction number below 1. Since it is likely that there will be multiple re-introductions, responding at too low a threshold may mean repeatedly implementing controls unnecessarily for outbreaks that would self-eliminate even without control measures. On the other hand, waiting for too high a threshold to be reached creates a risk that controls will be

SUBMITTER: Plank MJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9327244 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature