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Estimating typhoid incidence from community-based serosurveys: a multicohort study.


ABSTRACT:

Background

The incidence of enteric fever, an invasive bacterial infection caused by typhoidal Salmonellae (Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi), is largely unknown in regions without blood culture surveillance. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether new diagnostic serological markers for typhoidal Salmonella can reliably estimate population-level incidence.

Methods

We collected longitudinal blood samples from patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever enrolled from surveillance studies in Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan, and Ghana between 2016 and 2021 and conducted cross-sectional serosurveys in the catchment areas of each surveillance site. We used ELISAs to measure quantitative IgA and IgG antibody responses to hemolysin E and S Typhi lipopolysaccharide. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to fit two-phase power-function decay models to the longitudinal antibody responses among enteric fever cases and used the joint distributions of the peak antibody titres and decay rate to estimate population-level incidence rates from cross-sectional serosurveys.

Findings

The longitudinal antibody kinetics for all antigen-isotypes were similar across countries and did not vary by clinical severity. The seroincidence of typhoidal Salmonella infection among children younger than 5 years ranged between 58·5 per 100 person-years (95% CI 42·1-81·4) in Dhaka, Bangladesh, to 6·6 per 100 person-years (4·3-9·9) in Kavrepalanchok, Nepal, and followed the same rank order as clinical incidence estimates.

Interpretation

The approach described here has the potential to expand the geographical scope of typhoidal Salmonella surveillance and generate incidence estimates that are comparable across geographical regions and time.

Funding

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Translations

For the Nepali, Bengali and Urdu translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

SUBMITTER: Aiemjoy K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9329131 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating typhoid incidence from community-based serosurveys: a multicohort study.

Aiemjoy Kristen K   Seidman Jessica C JC   Saha Senjuti S   Munira Sira Jam SJ   Islam Sajib Mohammad Saiful MS   Sium Syed Muktadir Al SMA   Sarkar Anik A   Alam Nusrat N   Zahan Farha Nusrat FN   Kabir Md Shakiul MS   Tamrakar Dipesh D   Vaidya Krista K   Shrestha Rajeev R   Shakya Jivan J   Katuwal Nishan N   Shrestha Sony S   Yousafzai Mohammad Tahir MT   Iqbal Junaid J   Dehraj Irum Fatima IF   Ladak Yasmin Y   Maria Noshi N   Adnan Mehreen M   Pervaiz Sadaf S   Carter Alice S AS   Longley Ashley T AT   Fraser Clare C   Ryan Edward T ET   Nodoushani Ariana A   Fasano Alessio A   Leonard Maureen M MM   Kenyon Victoria V   Bogoch Isaac I II   Jeon Hyon Jin HJ   Haselbeck Andrea A   Park Se Eun SE   Zellweger Raphaël M RM   Marks Florian F   Owusu-Dabo Ellis E   Adu-Sarkodie Yaw Y   Owusu Michael M   Teunis Peter P   Luby Stephen P SP   Garrett Denise O DO   Qamar Farah Naz FN   Saha Samir K SK   Charles Richelle C RC   Andrews Jason R JR  

The Lancet. Microbe 20220621 8


<h4>Background</h4>The incidence of enteric fever, an invasive bacterial infection caused by typhoidal Salmonellae (Salmonella enterica serovars Typhi and Paratyphi), is largely unknown in regions without blood culture surveillance. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether new diagnostic serological markers for typhoidal Salmonella can reliably estimate population-level incidence.<h4>Methods</h4>We collected longitudinal blood samples from patients with blood culture-confirmed enteric fever  ...[more]

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