Dataset Information

Response to COVID-19 during the Tokyo Olympic Games: Did we properly assess the risk?

ABSTRACT:

Background

The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases was expected to increase during the Tokyo Olympic Games because of the increased physical contact within and between the domestic population and international participants of the Games. The rapid rise of the Delta variant (B.1.617) in Japan meant that hosting the Olympic Games without any restrictions was likely to lead to an increase in cases. We aimed to quantitatively assess possible COVID-19 response strategies for the Olympic Games, comparing the prevalence of severe cases and the cumulative number of COVID-19 deaths via scenario analysis.

Methods

We used a discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group. Parameters were calibrated using the age-stratified COVID-19 incidence data in Osaka. Numerical simulations incorporated the planned Olympics Games and nationwide COVID-19 vaccination into the proposed model, alongside various subjects and types of countermeasures.

Results

Our model-informed approach suggested that having spectators at the Tokyo Olympic Games could lead to a surge in both cases and hospitalization. Projections for the scenario that explicitly incorporated the spread of the Delta variant (i.e., time-dependent increase in the relative transmissibility) showed that imposing stringent social distancing measures (R_t=0.7) for more than 8 weeks from the end of the Olympic Games might be required to suppress the prevalence of severe cases of COVID-19 to avoid overwhelming the intensive care unit capacity in Tokyo.

Conclusions

Our modeling analyses guided an optimal choice of COVID-19 response during and after the Tokyo Olympic Games, allowing the epidemic to be brought under control despite such a large mass gathering.

SUBMITTER: Jung SM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9333999 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Response to COVID-19 during the Tokyo Olympic Games: Did we properly assess the risk?

Jung Sung-Mok SM Hayashi Katsuma K Kayano Taishi T Nishiura Hiroshi H

Epidemics 20220727

<h4>Background</h4>The number of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases was expected to increase during the Tokyo Olympic Games because of the increased physical contact within and between the domestic population and international participants of the Games. The rapid rise of the Delta variant (B.1.617) in Japan meant that hosting the Olympic Games without any restrictions was likely to lead to an increase in cases. We aimed to quantitatively assess possible COVID-19 response strategies for th ...[more]

PMID: 35908478

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Project description:The 2020 Olympic/Paralympic Games have been postponed to 2021, due to the COVID-19 pandemic. We developed a model that integrated source-environment-receptor pathways to evaluate how preventive efforts can reduce the infection risk among spectators at the opening ceremony of Tokyo Olympic Games. We simulated viral loads of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) emitted from infectors through talking/coughing/sneezing and modeled temporal environmental behaviors, including virus inactivation and transfer. We performed Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the expected number of newly infected individuals with and without preventive measures, yielding the crude probability of a spectator being an infector among the 60,000 people expected to attend the opening ceremony. Two indicators, i.e., the expected number of newly infected individuals and the newly infected individuals per infector entry, were proposed to demonstrate the extent of achievable infection risk reduction levels by implementing possible preventive measures. A no-prevention scenario produced 1.5-1.7 newly infected individuals per infector entry, whereas a combination of cooperative preventive measures by organizers and the spectators achieved a 99% risk reduction, corresponding to 0.009-0.012 newly infected individuals per infector entry. The expected number of newly infected individuals was calculated as 0.005 for the combination of cooperative preventive scenarios with the crude probability of a spectator being an infector of 1 × 10-5. Based on our estimates, a combination of cooperative preventions between organizers and spectators is required to prevent a viral spread at the Tokyo Olympic/Paralympic Games. Further, under the assumption that society accepts < 10 newly infected persons traced to events held during the entire Olympic/Paralympic Games, we propose a crude probability of infectors of < 5 × 10-5 as a benchmark for the suppression of the infection. This is the first study to develop a model that can assess the infection risk among spectators due to exposure pathways at a mass gathering event.

Project description:IntroductionThe Tokyo 2021 Olympic Games was anticipated to expose athletes to the most challenging climatic conditions experienced in the history of the modern Olympic Games. This study documents strategies executed by Australian endurance athletes during the team holding camp and Olympic Games experiences, including (1) baseline physiological data, training data, and heat acclimation/acclimatization practices; (2) pre- and in-race cooling and nutritional strategies, and (3) Olympic Games race performance data.MethodsSix athletes (three males, three females; age 24 ± 4 years; VO2max 63.2 ± 8.7 mL⋅kg-1⋅min-1; sum of 7 skinfolds 53.1 ± 23.4 mm) were observed prior to and during the team holding camp held in Cairns, QLD, Australia. Athletes completed 6-7 weeks of intermittent heat acclimation training, utilizing a combination of 2-4 passive and active acclimation sessions per week. Active acclimation was systematically increased via exposure time, exercise intensity, temperature, and humidity. In the team holding camp, athletes undertook a further 23 heat acclimatization training sessions over 18 days in a continuous fashion. Hyperhydration (using sodium and glycerol osmolytes), and internal and external pre-and in-race cooling methods were also utilized. A low energy availability intervention was implemented with two athletes, as a strategy to periodize ideal race body composition. Race performance data and environmental conditions from the 2021 Olympic Games were also documented.ResultsThe highest values for aerobic capacity were 63.6 mL⋅kg-1⋅min-1 for female race walkers and 73.7 mL⋅kg-1⋅min-1 for males. Training volume for the six athletes was the highest in the second week of the team holding camp, and training intensity was lowest in the first week of the team holding camp. Performance outcomes included 6th place in the women's 20 km event (1:30:39), which was within 2% of her 20 km personal best time, and 8th place in the men's 50 km event (3:52:01), which was a personal best performance time.ConclusionPeriodized training, heat acclimation/acclimatization, cooling and nutritional strategies study may have contributed to the race outcomes in Olympic Games held hot, humid conditions, for the race walkers within this observational study.

Dataset Information

Response to COVID-19 during the Tokyo Olympic Games: Did we properly assess the risk?

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Response to COVID-19 during the Tokyo Olympic Games: Did we properly assess the risk?

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