Suboptimal human inference can invert the bias-variance trade-off for decisions with asymmetric evidence.

ABSTRACT: Solutions to challenging inference problems are often subject to a fundamental trade-off between: 1) bias (being systematically wrong) that is minimized with complex inference strategies, and 2) variance (being oversensitive to uncertain observations) that is minimized with simple inference strategies. However, this trade-off is based on the assumption that the strategies being considered are optimal for their given complexity and thus has unclear relevance to forms of inference based on suboptimal strategies. We examined inference problems applied to rare, asymmetrically available evidence, which a large population of human subjects solved using a diverse set of strategies that varied in form and complexity. In general, subjects using more complex strategies tended to have lower bias and

SUBMITTER: Eissa TL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9337699 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature