Lockdowns exert selection pressure on overdispersion of SARS-CoV-2 variants.

ABSTRACT: The SARS-CoV-2 ancestral strain has caused pronounced superspreading events, reflecting a disease characterized by overdispersion, where about 10% of infected people cause 80% of infections. New variants of the disease have different person-to-person variability in viral load, suggesting for example that the Alpha (B.1.1.7) variant is more infectious but relatively less prone to superspreading. Meanwhile, non-pharmaceutical mitigation of the pandemic has focused on limiting social contacts (lockdowns, regulations on gatherings) and decreasing transmission risk through mask wearing and social distancing. Using a mathematical model, we show that the competitive advantage of disease variants may heavily depend on the restrictions imposed. In particular, we find that lockdowns exert an evoluti

SUBMITTER: Nielsen BF 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9338171 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature