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Peak water: future long-term changes driven by socio-economic development in China.

ABSTRACT: Population and economic growth cause an increase in water demand leading to ever-increasing water shortage and water crisis. The paper presents China's future long-term changes in water demand driven by socio-economic development based on the construction of a water demand model. At the national and state or provincial level, the water demand model was calibrated and validated with historical data involving developed countries and developing countries, respectively, which exemplifies the feasibility and applicability of the model. Through analyzing the historical data and predicting the future water demand, the following conclusions are obtained. First, total water use in 2013 is not peak water. Second, total water demand is projected to continue increasing to an extent, which would not surge for the next few decades. Third, peak water of around 630 billion m³ may appear in 2026 or 2027. Fourth, the peak water will not be beyond 700 billion m³ issued by the National Comprehensive Water Resources Plan from China, even at the possible peak of population. In general, the water demand model can inform early intervention to prepare for times of scarcity and help track the effectiveness of water policy and management activities.

SUBMITTER: Guo L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9341153 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Peak water: future long-term changes driven by socio-economic development in China.

Guo Lishuo L Wang Lifang L

Environmental science and pollution research international 20220801 1

Population and economic growth cause an increase in water demand leading to ever-increasing water shortage and water crisis. The paper presents China's future long-term changes in water demand driven by socio-economic development based on the construction of a water demand model. At the national and state or provincial level, the water demand model was calibrated and validated with historical data involving developed countries and developing countries, respectively, which exemplifies the feasibi ...[more]

PMID: 35913694

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Project description:BackgroundLarge-scale outbreaks of scrub typhus combined with its emergence in new areas as a vector-borne rickettsiosis highlight the ongoing neglect of this disease. This study aims to explore the long-term changes and regional leading factors of scrub typhus in China, with the goal of providing valuable insights for disease prevention and control.MethodsThis study utilized a Bayesian space-time hierarchical model (BSTHM) to examine the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of scrub typhus and analyze the relationship between environmental factors and scrub typhus in southern and northern China from 2006 to 2018. Additionally, a GeoDetector model was employed to assess the predominant influences of geographical and socioeconomic factors in both regions.ResultsScrub typhus exhibits a seasonal pattern, typically occurring during the summer and autumn months (June to November), with a peak in October. Geographically, the high-risk regions, or hot spots, are concentrated in the south, while the low-risk regions, or cold spots, are located in the north. Moreover, the distribution of scrub typhus is influenced by environment and socio-economic factors. In the north and south, the dominant factors are the monthly normalized vegetation index (NDVI) and temperature. An increase in NDVI per interquartile range (IQR) leads to a 7.580% decrease in scrub typhus risk in northern China, and a 19.180% increase in the southern. Similarly, of 1 IQR increase in temperature reduces the risk of scrub typhus by 10.720% in the north but increases it by 15.800% in the south. In terms of geographical and socio-economic factors, illiteracy rate and altitude are the key determinants in the respective areas, with q-values of 0.844 and 0.882.ConclusionsThese results indicated that appropriate climate, environment, and social conditions would increase the risk of scrub typhus. This study provided helpful suggestions and a basis for reasonably allocating resources and controlling the occurrence of scrub typhus.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Hepatitis A (HepA) vaccination and economic transitions can change the epidemiology of HepA. China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita was known to be inversely associated with the incidence of HepA, but a deeper understanding of the epidemiology of HepA in different socio-economic regions is lacking. We compare the changing epidemiology of HepA in three socioeconomic-geographic regions of China. METHODS:We obtained data on all HepA cases reported through the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System and assessed trends and changes in age-specific incidence rates by age quartile and season. We categorized the country into three regions, the sequential years into five era, compared the incidence, quartile age, seasonal intensity and coverage of HepA of the three regions. Linear regression was performed to analyse trends in incidence of HepA and to analyse the association between coverage and incidence. RESULTS:The annual mean incidences of HepA in the eastern, central, and western regions decreased from 63.52/100 000, 50.57/100 000 and 46.39/100 000 in 1990-1992 to 1.18/100 000, 1.05/100 000 and 3.14/100 000 in 2012-2017, respectively. Decreases in incidence were seen in all age groups in the three regions; the incidence was highest (9.3/100 000) in the youngest age group (0-4 years) of the western region, while in the central region, the age group with the highest incidence changed from 0 to 9 years to adults ≥60 years old. In 2017, the median age of HepA cases was 43 years (Q1-Q3: 33-55), 47 years (Q1-Q3: 32-60) and 33 years (Q1-Q3: 9-52) in the eastern, central, and western provinces, respectively. Seasonal peaks became smaller or were nearly elimination nationwide, but seasonality persisted in some provinces. After the Expanded Program on Immunization (EPI) included HepA vaccine into the routine schedule in 2007, HepA coverage increased to > 80% in the three regions and was negatively association with the HepA incidence. CONCLUSION:The incidence of HepA decreased markedly between 1990 and 2017. A socioeconomic inequity in coverage of HepA vaccine was almost eliminated after HepA vaccine was introduced into China's EPI system, but inequity in incidence still existed in lower socio-economic developed region.

Dataset Information

Peak water: future long-term changes driven by socio-economic development in China.

Publications

Peak water: future long-term changes driven by socio-economic development in China.

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