Modeling scenarios for mitigating outbreaks in congregate settings.

ABSTRACT: The explosive outbreaks of COVID-19 seen in congregate settings such as prisons and nursing homes, has highlighted a critical need for effective outbreak prevention and mitigation strategies for these settings. Here we consider how different types of control interventions impact the expected number of symptomatic infections due to outbreaks. Introduction of disease into the resident population from the community is modeled as a stochastic point process coupled to a branching process, while spread between residents is modeled via a deterministic compartmental model that accounts for depletion of susceptible individuals. Control is modeled as a proportional decrease in the number of susceptible residents, the reproduction number, and/or the proportion of symptomatic infections. This permits

SUBMITTER: Blumberg S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9342784 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature