Evaluation of Intervention Policies for the COVID-19 Epidemic in the Seoul/Gyeonggi Region through a Model Simulation.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

To evaluate the efficacy of intervention policies on coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) dissemination.

Materials and methods

An age-structured compartmental model for the COVID-19 outbreak was proposed to predict the impact of control measures in the Seoul/Gyeonggi region. The model was calibrated based on actual data and realistic situations, including daily vaccine doses, proportion of delta variant cases, and confirmed cases by age. We simulated different scenarios for non-pharmaceutical interventions by varying social distancing and school attendance strategies.

Results

Two-step mitigation of social distancing without in-person classes would result in a rapid increase in confirmed cases up to 10000 but would keep severe cases within the manageable range of

SUBMITTER: Seok J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9344278 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature