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(Dis)agreement of polymyalgia rheumatica relapse criteria, and prediction of relapse in a retrospective cohort.


ABSTRACT:

Background

To develop and assess a prediction model for polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) relapse within the first year of glucocorticoid (GC) treatment.

Methods

A retrospective PMR cohort (clinical diagnosis) from a rheumatology department was used. All visits > 30 days after starting GC treatment and with > 2.5 mg/day oral prednisolone were used as potential relapse visits. Often used relapse criteria (1) rheumatologist judgement, (2) treatment intensification-based relapse) were assessed for agreement in this cohort. The proportion of patients with treatment-based relapse within 1 and 2 years of treatment and the relapse incidence rate were used to assess unadjusted associations with candidate predictors using logistic and Poisson regression respectively. After using a multiple imputation method, a multivariable model was developed and assessed to predict the occurrence (yes/no) of relapse within the first year of treatment.

Results

Data from 417 patients was used. Relapse occurred at 399 and 321 (of 2422) visits based on the rheumatologist judgement- and treatment-based criteria respectively, with low to moderate agreement between the two (87% (95% CI 0.86-0.88), with κ = 0.49 (95% CI 0.44-0.54)). Treatment-based relapse within the first two years was significantly associated with CRP, ESR, and pre-treatment symptom duration, and incidence rate with only CRP and ESR. A model to predict treatment intensification within the first year of treatment was developed using sex, medical history of cardiovascular disease and malignancies, pre-treatment symptom duration, ESR, and Hb, with an AUC of 0.60-0.65.

Conclusion

PMR relapse occurs frequently, although commonly used criteria only show moderate agreement, underlining the importance of a uniform definition and criteria of a PMR specific relapse. A model to predict treatment intensification was developed using practical predictors, although its performance was modest.

SUBMITTER: Bolhuis TE 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9344672 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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(Dis)agreement of polymyalgia rheumatica relapse criteria, and prediction of relapse in a retrospective cohort.

Bolhuis Thomas E TE   Marsman Diane D   van den Hoogen Frank H J FHJ   Broeder Alfons A den AAD   Broeder Nathan den ND   van der Maas Aatke A  

BMC rheumatology 20220802 1


<h4>Background</h4>To develop and assess a prediction model for polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) relapse within the first year of glucocorticoid (GC) treatment.<h4>Methods</h4>A retrospective PMR cohort (clinical diagnosis) from a rheumatology department was used. All visits > 30 days after starting GC treatment and with > 2.5 mg/day oral prednisolone were used as potential relapse visits. Often used relapse criteria (1) rheumatologist judgement, (2) treatment intensification-based relapse) were ass  ...[more]

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