A probabilistic epidemiological model for infectious diseases: The case of COVID-19 at global-level.

ABSTRACT: This study has developed a probabilistic epidemiological model a few weeks after the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic (based on the little data available at that time). The aim was to assess relative risks for future scenarios and evaluate the effectiveness of different management actions for 1 year ahead. We quantified, categorized, and ranked the risks for scenarios such as business as usual, and moderate and strong mitigation. We estimated that, in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have a 100% risk of explosion (i.e., more than 25% infections in the world population) and 34% (2.6 billion) of the world population would have been infected until the end of simulation. We analyzed the suitability of model scenarios by comparing actual values against estimate

SUBMITTER: Duarte HO 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9347552 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature