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Machine learning model prediction of 6-month functional outcome in elderly patients with intracerebral hemorrhage.

ABSTRACT: Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) has an increasing incidence and a worse outcome in elderly patients. The ability to predict the functional outcome in these patients can be helpful in supporting treatment decisions and establishing prognostic expectations. We evaluated the performance of a machine learning (ML) model to predict the 6-month functional status in elderly patients with ICH leveraging the predictive value of the clinical characteristics at hospital admission. Data were extracted by a retrospective multicentric database of patients ≥ 70 years of age consecutively admitted for the management of spontaneous ICH between January 1, 2014 and December 31, 2019. Relevant demographic, clinical, and radiological variables were selected by a feature selection algorithm (Boruta) and used to build a ML model. Outcome was determined according to the Glasgow Outcome Scale (GOS) at 6 months from ICH: dead (GOS 1), poor outcome (GOS 2-3: vegetative status/severe disability), and good outcome (GOS 4-5: moderate disability/good recovery). Ten features were selected by Boruta with the following relative importance order in the ML model: Glasgow Coma Scale, Charlson Comorbidity Index, ICH score, ICH volume, pupillary status, brainstem location, age, anticoagulant/antiplatelet agents, intraventricular hemorrhage, and cerebellar location. Random forest prediction model, evaluated on the hold-out test set, achieved an AUC of 0.96 (0.94-0.98), 0.89 (0.86-0.93), and 0.93 (0.90-0.95) for dead, poor, and good outcome classes, respectively, demonstrating high discriminative ability. A random forest classifier was successfully trained and internally validated to stratify elderly patients with spontaneous ICH into prognostic subclasses. The predictive value is enhanced by the ability of ML model to identify synergy among variables.

SUBMITTER: Trevisi G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9349060 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Machine learning model prediction of 6-month functional outcome in elderly patients with intracerebral hemorrhage.

Trevisi Gianluca G Caccavella Valerio Maria VM Scerrati Alba A Signorelli Francesco F Salamone Giuseppe Giovanni GG Orsini Klizia K Fasciani Christian C D'Arrigo Sonia S Auricchio Anna Maria AM D'Onofrio Ginevra G Salomi Francesco F Albanese Alessio A De Bonis Pasquale P Mangiola Annunziato A Sturiale Carmelo Lucio CL

Neurosurgical review 20220506 4

Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) has an increasing incidence and a worse outcome in elderly patients. The ability to predict the functional outcome in these patients can be helpful in supporting treatment decisions and establishing prognostic expectations. We evaluated the performance of a machine learning (ML) model to predict the 6-month functional status in elderly patients with ICH leveraging the predictive value of the clinical characteristics at hospital admission. Data were extr ...[more]

PMID: 35522333

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Project description:BackgroundPredicting functional impairment after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) provides valuable information for planning of patient care and rehabilitation strategies. Current prognostic tools are limited in making long term predictions and require multiple expert-defined inputs and interpretation that make their clinical implementation challenging. This study aimed to predict long term functional impairment of ICH patients from admission non-contrast CT scans, leveraging deep learning models in a survival analysis framework.MethodsWe used the admission non-contrast CT scans from 882 patients from the Massachusetts General Hospital ICH Study for training, hyperparameter optimization, and model selection, and 146 patients from the Yale New Haven ICH Study for external validation of a deep learning model predicting functional outcome. Disability (modified Rankin scale [mRS] > 2), severe disability (mRS > 4), and dependent living status were assessed via telephone interviews after 6, 12, and 24 months. The prediction methods were evaluated by the c-index and compared with ICH score and FUNC score.ResultsUsing non-contrast CT, our deep learning model achieved higher prediction accuracy of post-ICH dependent living, disability, and severe disability by 6, 12, and 24 months (c-index 0.742 [95% CI -0.700 to 0.778], 0.712 [95% CI -0.674 to 0.752], 0.779 [95% CI -0.733 to 0.832] respectively) compared with the ICH score (c-index 0.673 [95% CI -0.662 to 0.688], 0.647 [95% CI -0.637 to 0.661] and 0.697 [95% CI -0.675 to 0.717]) and FUNC score (c-index 0.701 [95% CI- 0.698 to 0.723], 0.668 [95% CI -0.657 to 0.680] and 0.727 [95% CI -0.708 to 0.753]). In the external independent Yale-ICH cohort, similar performance metrics were obtained for disability and severe disability (c-index 0.725 [95% CI -0.673 to 0.781] and 0.747 [95% CI -0.676 to 0.807], respectively). Similar AUC of predicting each outcome at 6 months, 1 and 2 years after ICH was achieved compared with ICH score and FUNC score.ConclusionWe developed a generalizable deep learning model to predict onset of dependent living and disability after ICH, which could help to guide treatment decisions, advise relatives in the acute setting, optimize rehabilitation strategies, and anticipate long-term care needs.

Project description:BackgroundThis study aimed to compare the performance of different machine learning models in predicting symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) after thrombolysis treatment for ischemic stroke.MethodsThis multicenter study utilized the Shenyang Stroke Emergency Map database, comprising 8,924 acute ischemic stroke patients from 29 comprehensive hospitals who underwent thrombolysis between January 2019 and December 2021. An independent testing cohort was further established, including 1,921 patients from the First People's Hospital of Shenyang. The structured dataset encompassed 15 variables, including clinical and therapeutic metrics. The primary outcome was the sICH occurrence post-thrombolysis. Models were developed using an 80/20 split for training and internal validation. Performance was assessed using machine learning classifiers, including logistic regression with lasso regularization, support vector machine (SVM), random forest, gradient-boosted decision tree (GBDT), and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The model boasting the highest area under the curve (AUC) was specifically employed to highlight feature importance.ResultsBaseline characteristics were compared between the training cohort (n = 6,369) and the external validation cohort (n = 1,921), with the sICH incidence being slightly higher in the training cohort (1.6%) compared to the validation cohort (1.1%). Among the evaluated models, the logistic regression with lasso regularization achieved the highest AUC of 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79-0.95; p < 0.001), followed by the MLP model with an AUC of 0.766 (95% CI: 0.637-0.894; p = 0.04). The reference model and SVM showed AUCs of 0.575 and 0.582, respectively, while the random forest and GBDT models performed less optimally with AUCs of 0.536 and 0.436, respectively. Decision curve analysis revealed net benefits primarily for the SVM and MLP models. Feature importance from the logistic regression model emphasized anticoagulation therapy as the most significant negative predictor (coefficient: -2.0833) and recombinant tissue plasminogen activator as the principal positive predictor (coefficient: 0.5082).ConclusionAfter a comprehensive evaluation, the MLP model is recommended due to its superior ability to predict the risk of symptomatic hemorrhage post-thrombolysis in ischemic stroke patients. Based on decision curve analysis, the MLP-based model was chosen and demonstrated enhanced discriminative ability compared to the reference. This model serves as a valuable tool for clinicians, aiding in treatment planning and ensuring more precise forecasting of patient outcomes.

Dataset Information

Machine learning model prediction of 6-month functional outcome in elderly patients with intracerebral hemorrhage.

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Machine learning model prediction of 6-month functional outcome in elderly patients with intracerebral hemorrhage.

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