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Global land-use intensity and anthropogenic emissions exhibit symbiotic and explosive behavior

ABSTRACT: Summary The intensification of land use is accelerating and remains a threat to achieving environmental sustainability. Although prior literature identifies unsustainable demand for resources as crucial to ecosystem vitality, we highlight explosive behavior and indicators associated with changing global land-use intensity and emissions. We assess emission footprints, forestry, and agricultural land-use intensity across income groups. We find that long-term income growth above US$1005/capita has mitigation effects on emissions, whereas emissions stimulate the global expansion of land use for agricultural and forestry activities. Urban expansion has diminishing effects on agricultural lands in developed countries, which may alter future agricultural production and food consumption. The heterogeneous effects across countries demonstrate the need for domestic context, including cultural and historical factors, in assessing forest decline, agricultural expansion, and land-use intensity. The co-benefits of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) in developing economies are crucial to mitigating emissions while improving forest-dependent livelihoods. Graphical abstract Highlights • Forest lands exhibit explosive behavior with a structural decline in several countries• The magnitude of emissions, forestry, and land use are heterogeneous across economies• GHG emissions have transboundary tendencies through trade in agriculture and forestry• Sustained economic productivity declines global emissions and land-use intensity Environmental science; Environmental health; Environmental policy; Energy policy; Energy sustainability.

SUBMITTER: Sarkodie S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9352532 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Anthropogenic activities have altered approximately two-thirds of the Earth's land surface. Urbanization, industrialization, agricultural expansion, and deforestation are increasingly impacting the terrestrial landscapes, leading to shifts of areas in artificial surface (i.e., humanmade), cropland, pasture, forest, and barren land. Land use patterns and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions play a critical role in global climate change. Here we synthesized 29 years of global historical data and demonstrated how land use impacts global GHG emissions using structural equation modeling. We then obtained predictive estimates of future global GHG emissions using a deep learning model. Our results show that, from 1992 to 2020, the global terrestrial areas covered by artificial surface and cropland have expanded by 133% and 6% because of population growth and socioeconomic development, resulting in 4.0% and 3.8% of declines in pasture and forest areas, respectively. Land use was significantly associated with GHG emissions (p < 0.05). Artificial surface dominates global GHG emissions, followed by cropland, pasture, and barren land. The increase in artificial surfaces has driven up global GHG emissions through the increase in energy consumption. Conversely, improved agricultural management practices have contributed to mitigating agricultural GHG emissions. Forest, on the other hand, serves as a sink of GHG. In total, global GHG emissions increased from 31 to 46 GtCO2eq from 1992 to 2020. Looking ahead, if current trends in global land use continue at the same rates, our model projects that global GHG emissions will reach 76 ± 8 GtCO2eq in 2050. In contrast, reducing the rates of land use change by half could limit global GHG emissions to 60 ± 3 GtCO2eq in 2050. Monitoring and analyzing these projections allow a better understanding of the potential impacts of various land use scenarios on global climate and planning for a sustainable future.

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Global land-use intensity and anthropogenic emissions exhibit symbiotic and explosive behavior

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