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Development and validation of an early warning score to identify COVID-19 in the emergency department based on routine laboratory tests: a multicentre case-control study.


ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Identifying patients with a possible SARS-CoV-2 infection in the emergency department (ED) is challenging. Symptoms differ, incidence rates vary and test capacity may be limited. As PCR-testing all ED patients is neither feasible nor effective in most centres, a rapid, objective, low-cost early warning score to triage ED patients for a possible infection is developed.

Design

Case-control study.

Setting

Secondary and tertiary hospitals in the Netherlands.

Participants

The study included patients presenting to the ED with venous blood sampling from July 2019 to July 2020 (n=10 417, 279 SARS-CoV-2-positive). The temporal validation cohort covered the period from July 2020 to October 2021 (n=14 080, 1093 SARS-CoV-2-positive). The external validation cohort consisted of patients presenting to the ED of three hospitals in the Netherlands (n=12 061, 652 SARS-CoV-2-positive).

Primary outcome measures

The primary outcome was one or more positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR test results within 1 day prior to or 1 week after ED presentation.

Results

The resulting 'CoLab-score' consists of 10 routine laboratory measurements and age. The score showed good discriminative ability (AUC: 0.930, 95% CI 0.909 to 0.945). The lowest CoLab-score had high sensitivity for COVID-19 (0.984, 95% CI 0.970 to 0.991; specificity: 0.411, 95% CI 0.285 to 0.520). Conversely, the highest score had high specificity (0.978, 95% CI 0.973 to 0.983; sensitivity: 0.608, 95% CI 0.522 to 0.685). The results were confirmed in temporal and external validation.

Conclusions

The CoLab-score is based on routine laboratory measurements and is available within 1 hour after presentation. Depending on the prevalence, COVID-19 may be safely ruled out in over one-third of ED presentations. Highly suspect cases can be identified regardless of presenting symptoms. The CoLab-score is continuous, in contrast to the binary outcome of lateral flow testing, and can guide PCR testing and triage ED patients.

SUBMITTER: Boer AK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9352566 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and validation of an early warning score to identify COVID-19 in the emergency department based on routine laboratory tests: a multicentre case-control study.

Boer Arjen-Kars AK   Deneer Ruben R   Maas Maaike M   Ammerlaan Heidi S M HSM   van Balkom Roland H H RHH   Thijssen Wendy A H M WAHM   Bennenbroek Sophie S   Leers Mathie M   Martens Remy J H RJH   Buijs Madelon M MM   Kerremans Jos J JJ   Messchaert Muriël M   van Suijlen Jeroen J JJ   van Riel Natal A W NAW   Scharnhorst Volkher V  

BMJ open 20220803 8


<h4>Objectives</h4>Identifying patients with a possible SARS-CoV-2 infection in the emergency department (ED) is challenging. Symptoms differ, incidence rates vary and test capacity may be limited. As PCR-testing all ED patients is neither feasible nor effective in most centres, a rapid, objective, low-cost early warning score to triage ED patients for a possible infection is developed.<h4>Design</h4>Case-control study.<h4>Setting</h4>Secondary and tertiary hospitals in the Netherlands.<h4>Parti  ...[more]

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