Towards seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities in Europe using climate and catchment information.

ABSTRACT: We investigate whether the distribution of maximum seasonal streamflow is significantly affected by catchment or climate state of the season/month ahead. We fit the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution to extreme seasonal streamflow for around 600 stations across Europe by conditioning the GEV location and scale parameters on 14 indices, which represent the season-ahead climate or catchment state. The comparison of these climate-informed models with the classical GEV distribution, with time-constant parameters, suggests that there is a substantial potential for seasonal forecasting of flood probabilities. The potential varies between seasons and regions. Overall, the season-ahead catchment wetness shows the highest potential, although climate indices based on large-scale atmospheri

SUBMITTER: Steirou E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9357046 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature