Dataset Information

Risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma incidence using a fibrosis-4-based prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving antiviral therapy: a nationwide real-world Taiwanese cohort study.

ABSTRACT: A total of 1,589 patients who had received interferon-based treatment were enrolled and analyzed for the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a real-world nationwide Taiwanese chronic hepatitis C cohort (T-COACH). We aimed to stratify HCC risk by non-invasive fibrosis index-based risk model. Of 1589 patients, 1363 (85.8%) patients achieved sustained virological response (SVR). Patients with SVR had 1, 3, 5 and 10-year cumulative HCC incidence rates of 0.55%, 1.87%, 3.48% and 8.35%, respectively. A Cox proportional hazards model revealed that non-SVR (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.92, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-3.12, p = 0.008), diabetes mellitus (aHR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.25-3.55, p = 0.005), and fibrosis (FIB)-4 at the end of follow-up (EOF; aHR: 5.60, 95% CI: 2.97-10.57, p < 0.0001) were independent predictors of HCC. Risk score models based on the three predictors were developed to predict HCC according to aHR. In model 1, the 10-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 43.35% in patients at high risk (score 9-10), 25.48% in those at intermediate risk (score 6-8), and 4.06% in those at low risk (score 3-5) of HCC. In model 2, the 10-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 39.64% in patients at high risk (at least two risk predictors), 19.12% in those at intermediate risk (with one risk predictor), and 2.52% in those at low risk (without any risk predictors) of HCC. The FIB-4-based prediction model at EOF could help stratify the risk of HCC in patients with chronic hepatitis C after antiviral treatment.

SUBMITTER: Wang HW

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9360245 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma incidence using a fibrosis-4-based prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving antiviral therapy: a nationwide real-world Taiwanese cohort study.

Wang Hung-Wei HW Tsai Pei-Chein PC Chen Chi-Yi CY Tseng Kuo-Chih KC Lai Hsueh-Chou HC Kuo Hsing-Tao HT Hung Chao-Hung CH Tung Shui-Yi SY Wang Jing-Houng JH Chen Jyh-Jou JJ Lee Pei-Lun PL Chien Ron-Nan RN Lin Chun-Yen CY Yang Chi-Chieh CC Lo Gin-Ho GH Tai Chi-Ming CM Lin Chih-Wen CW Kao Jia-Horng JH Liu Chun-Jen CJ Liu Chen-Hua CH Yan Sheng-Lei SL Bair Ming-Jong MJ Su Wei-Wen WW Chu Cheng-Hsin CH Chen Chih-Jen CJ Lo Ching-Chu CC Cheng Pin-Nan PN Chiu Yen-Cheng YC Wang Chia-Chi CC Cheng Jin-Shiung JS Tsai Wei-Lun WL Lin Han-Chieh HC Huang Yi-Hsiang YH Huang Jee-Fu JF Dai Chia-Yen CY Chuang Wan-Long WL Yu Ming-Lung ML Peng Cheng-Yuan CY

American journal of cancer research 20220715 7

A total of 1,589 patients who had received interferon-based treatment were enrolled and analyzed for the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in a real-world nationwide Taiwanese chronic hepatitis C cohort (T-COACH). We aimed to stratify HCC risk by non-invasive fibrosis index-based risk model. Of 1589 patients, 1363 (85.8%) patients achieved sustained virological response (SVR). Patients with SVR had 1, 3, 5 and 10-year cumulative HCC incidence rates of 0.55%, 1.87%, 3.48% and 8.35%, respecti ...[more]

PMID: 35968345

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Project description:BackgroundDetailed subgroup incidence rates for steatotic liver disease (SLD)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are critical to inform practice and public health interventions but remain sparse. We aimed to fill in this gap.Methods and findingsIn a retrospective cohort study of adults with SLD from the United States (US) Merative Marketscan Research Databases (1/2007 to 12/2021), we estimated HCC incidence stratified by sex, age, cirrhosis, diabetes mellitus (DM), and a combination of all these 4 factors. We excluded patients with significant alcohol use and chronic viral hepatitis. We analyzed data from 741,816 patients with SLD (mean age 51.5 ± 12.8 years, 46% male, 14.7% cirrhosis). During a 2,410,166 person-years (PY) follow-up, 1,740 patients developed HCC. The overall HCC incidence yielded 0.72 per 1,000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI, 0.68, 0.75]). The incidence was higher in males (0.95, 95% CI [0.89, 1.01]) compared to females (0.52, 95% CI [0.48, 0.56]) (p < 0.001). For those with cirrhosis, the incidence was significantly higher at 4.29 (95% CI [4.06, 4.51]) compared to those without cirrhosis (0.14, 95% CI [0.13, 0.16]) (p < 0.001). Additionally, the incidence was higher in patients with DM (1.19, 95% CI [1.12, 1.26]) compared to those without DM (0.41, 95% CI [0.38, 0.44]) (p < 0.001). Chronic kidney disease (CKD) was also associated with a higher HCC incidence of 2.20 (95% CI [2.00, 2.41]) compared to those without CKD (0.58, 95% CI [0.55, 0.62]) (p < 0.001). Similarly, individuals with cardiovascular disease (CVD) had a higher HCC incidence of 1.89 (95% CI [1.75, 2.03]) compared to those without CVD (0.51, 95% CI [0.48, 0.54]) (p < 0.001). Finally, the incidence of HCC was significantly higher in patients with non-liver cancer (3.90, 95% CI [3.67, 4.12]) compared to those without other cancers (0.29, 95% CI [0.26, 0.31]) (p < 0.001). On further stratification, HCC incidence incrementally rose by 10-year age intervals, male sex, cirrhosis, and DM, reaching 19.06 (95% CI [16.10, 22.01]) and 8.44 (95% CI [6.78, 10.10]) in males and females, respectively, but only 0.04 for non-diabetic, noncirrhotic aged <40 years patients in both sexes. The main limitation of this methodology is the potential misclassification of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes inherent in claims database studies.ConclusionsThis nationwide study provided robust granular estimates for SLD-related HCC incidence stratified by several key risk factors. In addition to cirrhosis, future surveillance strategies, prevention, public health initiatives, and future research models should also take into account the impact of sex, age, and DM.

Project description:PurposeHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most severe complications in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. HCC can still develop in patients with chronic HBV (CHB) infection undergoing antiviral therapy. Several effective scoring systems for the prediction of HCC risk in CHB patients have been established. However, very few of them are designed for CHB patients receiving nucleos(t)ide analogues (NAs) therapy. Furthermore, none are available for HCC risk prediction in CHB patients receiving finite periods of antiviral therapy.MethodsThis study enrolled 790 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with CHB infection who had visited our liver clinics from 2008 to 2012 for pretreatment assessment before receiving antiviral therapies. The treatments were provided at finite periods according to the National Health Insurance Policy in Taiwan. The last follow-up date was 31 December 2021. We analyzed the virological and clinical factors in these 790 CHB patients receiving finite periods of NA treatments and identified the most significant risk factors for HCC to establish a novel predictive scoring system. By using stepwise selection in a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model, we divided the patients into three risk groups.ResultsOur predictive scoring system included five independent variables: genotype C (adjusted HR [aHR] = 2.23), NA-withdraw-related hepatitis relapse (aHR = 6.96), male (aHR = 4.19), liver cirrhosis (aHR = 11.14), and T1768A core promoter mutation (aHR = 3.21). This model revealed significant differences in HCC incidence among the three risk groups. The 5-year cumulative HCC risk significantly differed among the three risk groups (low risk: 1.33%, moderate risk: 4.99%, and high risk: 17.46%), with log-rank test p < 0.001.ConclusionOur predictive scoring system is a promising tool for the prediction of HCC in CHB patients receiving finite NA treatments. Genotype C, NA-withdraw-related hepatitis relapse, male gender, liver cirrhosis, and the T1768A HBV core promoter mutation were significant independent risk factors.

Project description:Background & aimsIn addition to HBV/HCV causing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), other risk factors including obesity and alcohol drinking also increase risk. We describe the cumulative risk of HCC and mortality from liver-related disease by selected modifiable risk factors among a non-hepatitis virus-infected population.MethodsFor a community-based cohort, residents aged 30-65 years living in 7 townships in Taiwan were recruited, and have been followed up since 1991. A total of 18,541 individuals were seronegative for markers of chronic infection of HBV/HCV and with no history of HCC at baseline. New non-HBV/HCV HCC cases and liver-related deaths were ascertained through data linkage to the National Cancer Registry and Death Certification System from 1 January 1991 through 31 December 2017.ResultsThere were 207 HCC cases and 215 liver-related deaths identified. The incidence rate of non-HBV/HCV HCC was 47.2 per 100,000 person-years. The mortality rate of liver-related death was 49.0 per 100,000 person-years. Baseline information on alcohol consumption, heart disease, diabetes, elevated aspartate aminotransferase, and alanine aminotransferase predicted higher risks of HCC, with hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CIs) of 1.7 (1.1-2.5), 2.2 (1.1-4.1), 1.9 (1.0-3.5), 1.7 (1.1-2.4), and 1.6 (1.0-2.4), respectively. The HRs (95% CIs) of liver-related death were 2.3 (1.6-3.2) for alcohol consumption, 1.4 (1.1-1.9) for BMI ≥25 kg/m2, 2.2 (1.4-3.3) for elevated aspartate aminotransferase, and 1.5 (1.0-2.4) for elevated alanine aminotransferase. The HR (95% CI) was 8.1 (3.6-18.5) for those with diabetes and elevated aspartate aminotransferase.ConclusionsIndividuals with elevated liver enzymes are at high risk of liver disease. Prevention and treatment of diabetes and heart disease are critical for non-hepatitis B, non-hepatitis C (NonB/C)-HCC.Lay summaryWe followed up individuals with no chronic HBV or HCV infection and described the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC, the most common form of primary liver cancer) and mortality from liver-related disease by modifiable risk factors. This study estimated the incidence rate of HCC by selected lifestyle risk factors and chronic diseases conditions. Alcohol consumption, heart disease, diabetes, and abnormal blood liver function tests showed a strong association with HCC risk and mortality.

Dataset Information

Risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma incidence using a fibrosis-4-based prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving antiviral therapy: a nationwide real-world Taiwanese cohort study.

Publications

Risk stratification of hepatocellular carcinoma incidence using a fibrosis-4-based prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis C receiving antiviral therapy: a nationwide real-world Taiwanese cohort study.

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