Modeling the Recovery of Elective Waiting Lists Following COVID-19: Scenario Projections for England.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

A significant indirect impact of COVID-19 has been the increasing elective waiting times observed in many countries. In England's National Health Service, the waiting list has grown from 4.4 million in February 2020 to 5.7 million by August 2021. The objective of this study was to estimate the trajectory of future waiting list size and waiting times up to December 2025.

Methods

A scenario analysis was performed using computer simulation and publicly available data as of November 2021. Future demand assumed a phased return of various proportions (0%, 25%, 50%, and 75%) of the estimated 7.1 million referrals "missed" during the pandemic. Future capacity assumed 90%, 100%, and 110% of that provided in the 12 months immediately before the pandemic.

Results

As a

SUBMITTER: Howlett NC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9365524 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature