Dataset Information

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Hospitalization in Patients with Respiratory Symptoms during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

ABSTRACT: A machine learning approach is a useful tool for risk-stratifying patients with respiratory symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic, as it is still evolving. We aimed to verify the predictive capacity of a gradient boosting decision trees (XGboost) algorithm to select the most important predictors including clinical and demographic parameters in patients who sought medical support due to respiratory signs and symptoms (RAPID RISK COVID-19). A total of 7336 patients were enrolled in the study, including 6596 patients that did not require hospitalization and 740 that required hospitalization. We identified that patients with respiratory signs and symptoms, in particular, lower oxyhemoglobin saturation by pulse oximetry (SpO₂) and higher respiratory rate, fever, higher heart rate, and lower levels of blood pressure, associated with age, male sex, and the underlying conditions of diabetes mellitus and hypertension, required hospitalization more often. The predictive model yielded a ROC curve with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.9181 (95% CI, 0.9001 to 0.9361). In conclusion, our model had a high discriminatory value which enabled the identification of a clinical and demographic profile predictive, preventive, and personalized of COVID-19 severity symptoms.

SUBMITTER: De Freitas VM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9369854 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Hospitalization in Patients with Respiratory Symptoms during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

De Freitas Victor Muniz VM Chiloff Daniela Mendes DM Bosso Giulia Gabriella GG Teixeira Janaina Oliveira Pires JOP Hernandes Isabele Cristina de Godói ICG Padilha Maira do Patrocínio MDP Moura Giovanna Corrêa GC De Andrade Luis Gustavo Modelli LGM Mancuso Frederico F Finamor Francisco Estivallet FE Serodio Aluísio Marçal de Barros AMB Arakaki Jaquelina Sonoe Ota JSO Sartori Marair Gracio Ferreira MGF Ferreira Paulo Roberto Abrão PRA Rangel Érika Bevilaqua ÉB

Journal of clinical medicine 20220805 15

A machine learning approach is a useful tool for risk-stratifying patients with respiratory symptoms during the COVID-19 pandemic, as it is still evolving. We aimed to verify the predictive capacity of a gradient boosting decision trees (XGboost) algorithm to select the most important predictors including clinical and demographic parameters in patients who sought medical support due to respiratory signs and symptoms (RAPID RISK COVID-19). A total of 7336 patients were enrolled in the study, incl ...[more]

PMID: 35956189

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Project description:Background/Objectives: Studies attempting to predict the development of severe respiratory failure in patients with a COVID-19 infection using machine learning algorithms have yielded different results due to differences in variable selection. We aimed to predict the development of severe respiratory failure, defined as the need for high-flow oxygen support, continuous positive airway pressure, or mechanical ventilation, in patients with COVID-19, using machine learning algorithms to identify the most important variables in achieving this prediction. Methods: This retrospective, cross-sectional study included COVID-19 patients with mild respiratory failure (mostly receiving oxygen through a mask or nasal cannula). We used XGBoost, support vector machines, multi-layer perceptron, k-nearest neighbor, random forests, decision trees, logistic regression, and naïve Bayes methods to accurately predict severe respiratory failure in these patients. Results: A total of 320 patients (62.1% male; average age, 54.67 ± 15.82 years) were included in this study. During the follow-ups of these cases, 114 patients (35.6%) required high-level oxygen support, 67 (20.9%) required intensive care unit admission, and 43 (13.4%) died. The machine learning algorithms with the highest accuracy values were XGBoost, support vector machines, k-nearest neighbor, logistic regression, and multi-layer perceptron (0.7395, 0.7395, 0.7291, 0.7187, and 0.75, respectively). The method that obtained the highest ROC-AUC value was logistic regression (ROC-AUC = 0.7274). The best predictors of severe respiratory failure were a low lymphocyte count, a high computed tomography score in the right and left upper lung zones, an elevated neutrophil count, a small decrease in CRP levels on the third day of admission, a high Charlson comorbidity index score, and a high serum procalcitonin level. Conclusions: The development of severe respiratory failure in patients with COVID-19 could be successfully predicted using machine learning methods, especially logistic regression, and the best predictors of severe respiratory failure were the lymphocyte count and the degree of upper lung zone involvement.

Project description:IntroductionIdentifying COVID-19 patients that are most likely to progress to a severe infection is crucial for optimizing care management and increasing the likelihood of survival. This study presents a machine learning model that predicts severe cases of COVID-19, defined as the presence of Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome (ARDS) and highlights the different risk factors that play a significant role in disease progression.MethodsA cohort composed of 289,351 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 in April 2020 was created using US administrative claims data from Oct 2015 to Jul 2020. For each patient, information about 817 diagnoses, were collected from the medical history ahead of COVID-19 infection. The primary outcome of the study was the presence of ARDS in the 4 months following COVID-19 infection. The study cohort was randomly split into training set used for model development, test set for model evaluation and validation set for real-world performance estimation.ResultsWe analyzed three machine learning classifiers to predict the presence of ARDS. Among the algorithms considered, a Gradient Boosting Decision Tree had the highest performance with an AUC of 0.695 (95% CI, 0.679-0.709) and an AUPRC of 0.0730 (95% CI, 0.0676 - 0.0823), showing a 40% performance increase in performance against a baseline classifier. A panel of five clinicians was also used to compare the predictive ability of the model to that of clinical experts. The comparison indicated that our model is on par or outperforms predictions made by the clinicians, both in terms of precision and recall.ConclusionThis study presents a machine learning model that uses patient claims history to predict ARDS. The risk factors used by the model to perform its predictions have been extensively linked to the severity of the COVID-19 in the specialized literature. The most contributing diagnosis can be easily retrieved in the patient clinical history and can be used for an early screening of infected patients. Overall, the proposed model could be a promising tool to deploy in a healthcare setting to facilitate and optimize the care of COVID-19 patients.

Dataset Information

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Hospitalization in Patients with Respiratory Symptoms during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

Publications

A Machine Learning Model for Predicting Hospitalization in Patients with Respiratory Symptoms during the COVID-19 Pandemic.

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