Project description:Because of limitations in the availability of data on primary care encounters, patient retention in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care is often estimated using laboratory measurement dates as proxies for clinical encounters, leading to possible outcome misclassification. This study included 83,041 HIV-infected adults from 14 clinical cohorts in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) who had ≥1 HIV primary care encounters during 2000-2010, contributing 468,816 person-years of follow-up. Encounter-based retention (REB) was defined as ≥2 encounters in a calendar year, ≥90 days apart. Laboratory-based retention (RLB) was defined similarly, using the dates of CD4-positive cell counts or HIV-1 RNA measurements. Percentage of agreement and the κ statistic were used to characterize agreement between RLB and REB. Logistic regression with generalized estimating equations and stabilized inverse-probability-of-selection weights was used to elucidate temporal trends and the discriminatory power of RLB as a predictor of REB, accounting for age, sex, race/ethnicity, primary HIV risk factor, and cohort site as potential confounders. Both REB and RLB increased from 2000 to 2010 (from 67% to 78% and from 65% to 77%, respectively), though REB was higher than RLB throughout (P < 0.01). RLB agreed well with REB (80%-86% agreement; κ = 0.55-0.62, P < 0.01) and had a strong, imperfect ability to discriminate between persons retained and not retained in care by REB (C statistic: C = 0.81, P < 0.05). As a proxy for REB, RLB had a sensitivity and specificity of 84% and 77%, respectively, with misclassification error of 18%.
Project description:The Virochip microarray (version 4.0) was used to detect viruses in patients from North America with unexplained influenza-like illness at the onset of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic.
Project description:In a landmark comparative phylogeographic study, "Comparative phylogeography of unglaciated eastern North America," Soltis et al. (Molecular Ecology, 2006, 15, 4261) identified geographic discontinuities in genetic variation shared across taxa occupying unglaciated eastern North America and proposed several common biogeographical discontinuities related to past climate fluctuations and geographic barriers. Since 2006, researchers have published many phylogeographical studies and achieved many advances in genotyping and analytical techniques; however, it is unknown how this work has changed our understanding of the factors shaping the phylogeography of eastern North American taxa. We analyzed 184 phylogeographical studies of eastern North American taxa published between 2007 and 2019 to evaluate: (1) the taxonomic focus of studies and whether a previously detected taxonomic bias towards studies focused on vertebrates has changed over time, (2) the extent to which studies have adopted genotyping technologies that improve the resolution of genetic groups (i.e., NGS DNA sequencing) and analytical approaches that facilitate hypothesis-testing (i.e., divergence time estimation and niche modeling), and (3) whether new studies support the hypothesized biogeographic discontinuities proposed by Soltis et al. (Molecular Ecology, 2006, 15, 4261) or instead support new, previously undetected discontinuities. We observed little change in taxonomic focus over time, with studies still biased toward vertebrates. Although many technological and analytical advances became available during the period, uptake was slow and they were employed in only a small proportion of studies. We found variable support for previously identified discontinuities and identified one new recurrent discontinuity. However, the limited resolution and taxonomic breadth of many studies hindered our ability to clarify the most important climatological or geographical factors affecting taxa in the region. Broadening the taxonomic focus to include more non-vertebrate taxa, employing technologies that improve genetic resolution, and using analytical approaches that improve hypothesis testing are necessary to strengthen our inference of the forces shaping the phylogeography of eastern North America.
Project description:Atmospheric flows are characterized by chaotic dynamics and recurring large-scale patterns. These two characteristics point to the existence of an atmospheric attractor defined by Lorenz as: "the collection of all states that the system can assume or approach again and again, as opposed to those that it will ultimately avoid". The average dimension D of the attractor corresponds to the number of degrees of freedom sufficient to describe the atmospheric circulation. However, obtaining reliable estimates of D has proved challenging. Moreover, D does not provide information on transient atmospheric motions, such as those leading to weather extremes. Using recent developments in dynamical systems theory, we show that such motions can be classified through instantaneous rather than average properties of the attractor. The instantaneous properties are uniquely determined by instantaneous dimension and stability. Their extreme values correspond to specific atmospheric patterns, and match extreme weather occurrences. We further show the existence of a significant correlation between the time series of instantaneous stability and dimension and the mean spread of sea-level pressure fields in an operational ensemble weather forecast at lead times of over two weeks. Instantaneous properties of the attractor therefore provide an efficient way of evaluating and informing operational weather forecasts.
Project description:Clonal emergence is a major driver for changes in bacterial disease epidemiology. Recently, it has been proposed that episodic emergence of novel, hypervirulent clones of group A Streptococcus (GAS) results from horizontal gene transfer (HGT) and recombination events leading to increased expression of the cytotoxins Nga (NADase) and SLO (streptolysin O). We previously described a gene fusion event involving the gene encoding the GAS M protein (emm) and an adjacent M-like protein (enn) in the emm4 GAS population, a GAS emm type that lacks the hyaluronic acid capsule. Using whole genome sequencing of a temporally and geographically diverse set of 1,127 isolates, we discovered that the North American emm4 GAS population has undergone clonal replacement with emergent GAS strains completely replacing historical isolates by 2017. Emergent emm4 GAS strains were defined by a handful of small genetic variations, including the emm-enn gene fusion, and showed a marked in vitro growth defect compared to historical strains. In contrast to other previously described GAS clonal emergence events, emergent emm4 GAS lacked significant HGT events and showed no significant increase in transcript levels of nga/slo toxin gene via RNA sequencing and quantitative real-time PCR analysis relative to historic strains. Despite the in vitro growth differences, emergent emm4 GAS strains demonstrated hypervirulence in mouse and ex vivo growth in human blood compared to historical strains. Thus, these data detail the emergence and dissemination of a hypervirulent acapsular GAS clone defined by small genetic variation thereby defining a novel model for GAS strain replacement.
Project description:The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.
Project description:The transition to agriculture is one of the most significant events in human prehistory; yet, explaining why people initially domesticated plants and animals remains a contentious research problem in archaeology. Two competing hypotheses dominate current debates. The first draws on niche construction theory to emphasize how intentional management of wild resources should lead to domestication regardless of Malthusian population-resource imbalances. The second relies on models from behavioural ecology (BE) to highlight how individuals should only exert selective pressure on wild resources during times of population-resource imbalance. We examine these hypotheses to explain the domestication event which occurred in Eastern North America approximately 5000 years ago. Using radiocarbon date density and site counts as proxies for human population, we find that populations increased significantly in the 1000 years prior to initial domestication. We therefore suggest that high populations prior to 5000 cal BP may have experienced competition for and possibly overexploitation of resources, altering the selective pressures on wild plants thereby producing domesticates. These findings support the BE hypothesis of domestication occurring in the context of population-resource imbalances. Such deficits, driven either by increased populations or decreased resource abundance, are predicted to characterize domestication events elsewhere.