Dataset Information

Using a novel two-stage strategy to characterize the spatial distribution of associations between temperature and COVID-19: A case study in the continental United States.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Numerous studies have studied the association between daily average temperature (DAT) and daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, which show considerable heterogeneity, even opposite results, among different regions. Such heterogeneity suggests that characterizing the association on a large area scale would ignore the local variation, even obtain false results in some local regions. So, characterizing the spatial distribution of heterogeneous DAT-COVID-19 associations and exploring the causes plays an important role on making temperature-related region-specific intervention measures and early-warning systems.

Methods

Aiming to characterize the spatial distribution of associations between DAT and COVID-19 confirmed cases in the continental United States, we proposed a novel two-stage strategy. In the first stage, we used the common stratified distributed lag nonlinear model to obtain the rough state-specific associations. In the second stage, conditional autoregression was used to spatially smooth the rough estimations. Furtherly, based on the idea, two modified strategies were used to investigate the time-varying associations and the modification effects derived from the vaccination campaign.

Results

Around one-third of states exhibit no significant association between DAT and daily confirmed COVID-19 cases. Most of the remaining states present a low risk at low DAT and a high risk at high DAT, but several states present opposite associations. The average association curve presents a 'S' shape with positive association between -8 - 18 °C and keeping flat out of the range. An increased vaccination coverage rate will increase the risk when DAT < 12 °C, but slightly affect the risk when DAT > 12 °C.

Conclusion

A considerable spatial heterogeneity of DAT-COVID-19 associations exists in America and the average association curve presents a 'S' shape. The vaccination campaign significantly modifies the association when DAT is low, but only make a slight modification when DAT is high.

SUBMITTER: Wang W

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9373535 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Using a novel two-stage strategy to characterize the spatial distribution of associations between temperature and COVID-19: A case study in the continental United States.

Wang Wei W Ji Shuming S Wang Jinyu J Liao Fang F

The Science of the total environment 20220812

<h4>Background</h4>Numerous studies have studied the association between daily average temperature (DAT) and daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, which show considerable heterogeneity, even opposite results, among different regions. Such heterogeneity suggests that characterizing the association on a large area scale would ignore the local variation, even obtain false results in some local regions. So, characterizing the spatial distribution of heterogeneous DAT-COVID-19 associations and exploring th ...[more]

PMID: 35970465

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Project description:BackgroundSince the mid 1990s populations of non-native apple snails (Ampullariidae) have been discovered with increasing frequency in the continental United States. Given the dramatic effects that introduced apple snails have had on both natural habitats and agricultural areas in Southeast Asia, their introduction to the mainland U.S. is cause for concern. We combine phylogenetic analyses of mtDNA sequences with examination of introduced populations and museum collections to clarify the identities, introduced distributions, geographical origins, and introduction histories of apple snails.ResultsBased on sampling to date, we conclude there are five species of non-native apple snails in the continental U.S. Most significantly, we recognize three species within what has been called the channeled apple snail: Pomacea canaliculata (California and Arizona), Pomacea insularum, (Florida, Texas, and Georgia) and Pomacea haustrum (Florida). The first established populations of P. haustrum were discovered in the late 1970s in Palm Beach County Florida, and have not spread appreciably in 30 years. In contrast, populations of P. insularum were established in Texas by 1989, in Florida by the mid to late 1990s, and in Georgia by 2005, and this species continues to spread rapidly. Most introduced P. insularum haplotypes are a close match to haplotypes from the Río Uruguay near Buenos Aires, indicating cold tolerance, with the potential to spread from Florida, Georgia, and Texas through Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and South Carolina. Pomacea canaliculata populations were first discovered in California in 1997. Haplotypes of introduced P. canaliculata match native-range haplotypes from near Buenos Aires, Argentina, also indicating cold tolerance and the potential to establish farther north.ConclusionThe term "channeled apple snail" is descriptive of a morphology found in many apple snail species. It does not identify a single species or a monophyletic group. Clarifying species identifications permits a more accurate assessment of introduction histories and distributions, and provides a very different picture of the tempo and pattern of invasions than was inferred when the three species with channeled sutures were considered one. Matching introduced and native-range haplotypes suggests the potential for range expansion, with implications for native aquatic ecosystems and species, agriculture, and human health.

Dataset Information

Using a novel two-stage strategy to characterize the spatial distribution of associations between temperature and COVID-19: A case study in the continental United States.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Using a novel two-stage strategy to characterize the spatial distribution of associations between temperature and COVID-19: A case study in the continental United States.

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