System dynamics analysis on the effectiveness of vaccination and social mobilization policies for COVID-19 in the United States.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Chen J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9374237 | biostudies-literature | 2022
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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System dynamics analysis on the effectiveness of vaccination and social mobilization policies for COVID-19 in the United States.
Chen Jiayi J Chou Shuo-Yan SY Yu Tiffany Hui-Kuang TH Rizqi Zakka Ugih ZU Hang Dinh Thi DT
PloS one 20220812 8
The COVID-19 pandemic has presented significant public health and economic challenges worldwide. Various health and non-pharmaceutical policies have been adopted by different countries to control the spread of the virus. To shed light on the impact of vaccination and social mobilization policies during this wide-ranging crisis, this paper applies a system dynamics analysis on the effectiveness of these two types of policies on pandemic containment and the economy in the United States. Based on t ...[more]
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Project description:(1) Background: The coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused multiple waves of cases and deaths in the United States (US). The wild strain, the Alpha variant (B.1.1.7) and the Delta variant (B.1.617.2) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) were the principal culprits behind these waves. To mitigate the pandemic, the vaccination campaign was started in January 2021. While the vaccine efficacy is less than 1, breakthrough infections were reported. This work aims to examine the effects of the vaccination across 50 US states and the District of Columbia. (2) Methods: Based on the classic Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model, we add a delay class between infectious and death, a death class and a vaccinated class. We compare two special cases of our new model to simulate the effects of the vaccination. The first case expounds the vaccinated individuals with full protection or not, compared to the second case where all vaccinated individuals have the same level of protection. (3) Results: Through fitting the two approaches to reported COVID-19 deaths in all 50 US states and the District of Columbia, we found that these two approaches are equivalent. We calculate that the death toll could be 1.67-3.33 fold in most states if the vaccine was not available. The median and mean infection fatality ratio are estimated to be approximately 0.6 and 0.7%. (4) Conclusions: The two approaches we compared were equivalent in evaluating the effectiveness of the vaccination campaign in the US. In addition, the effect of the vaccination campaign was significant, with a large number of deaths averted.
| S-EPMC8871705 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a booster strategy in the United States.MethodsWe developed a decision-analytic Markov model of COVID-19 to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a booster strategy of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 (administered 6 months after the second dose) among older adults from a healthcare system perspective.ResultsCompared with 2 doses of BNT162b2 without a booster, the booster strategy in a 100,000 cohort of older adults would incur an additional cost of $3.4 million in vaccination cost but save $6.7 million in direct medical cost and gain 3.7 quality-adjusted life-years in 180 days. This corresponds to a benefit-cost ratio of 1.95 and a net monetary benefit of $3.4 million. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicates that a booster strategy has a high chance (67%) of being cost-effective. Notably, the cost-effectiveness of the booster strategy is highly sensitive to the population incidence of COVID-19, with a cost-effectiveness threshold of 8.1/100,000 person-day. If vaccine efficacies reduce by 10%, 30%, and 50%, this threshold will increase to 9.7/100,000, 13.9/100,000, and 21.9/100,000 person-day, respectively.ConclusionOffering the BNT162b2 booster to older adults aged ≥65 years in the United States is likely to be cost-effective. Less efficacious vaccines and boosters may still be cost-effective in settings of high SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
| S-EPMC8938315 | biostudies-literature
Project description:IntroductionCOVID-19 vaccines are safe, effective, and widely available, but many adults in the U.S. have not been vaccinated for COVID-19. This study examined the associations between behavioral and social drivers of vaccination with COVID-19 vaccine uptake in the U.S. adults and their prevalence by region.MethodsA nationally representative sample of U.S. adults participated in a cross-sectional telephone survey in August-November 2021; the analysis was conducted in January 2022. Survey questions assessed self-reported COVID-19 vaccine initiation, demographics, and behavioral and social drivers of vaccination.ResultsAmong the 255,763 respondents, 76% received their first dose of COVID-19 vaccine. Vaccine uptake was higher among respondents aged ≥75 years (94%), females (78%), and Asian non-Hispanic people (94%). The drivers of vaccination most strongly associated with uptake included higher anticipated regret from nonvaccination, risk perception, and confidence in vaccine safety and importance, followed by work- or school-related vaccination requirements, social norms, and provider recommendation (all p<0.05). The direction of association with uptake varied by reported level of difficulty in accessing vaccines. The prevalence of all of these behavioral and social drivers of vaccination was highest in the Northeast region and lowest in the Midwest and South.ConclusionsThis nationally representative survey found that COVID-19 vaccine uptake was most strongly associated with greater anticipated regret, risk perception, and confidence in vaccine safety and importance, followed by vaccination requirements and social norms. Interventions that leverage these social and behavioral drivers of vaccination have the potential to increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake and could be considered for other vaccine introductions.
| S-EPMC9874048 | biostudies-literature
Project description:We describe a simplified model, based on the current economic and health effects of human papillomavirus (HPV), to estimate the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination of 12-year-old girls in the United States. Under base-case parameter values, the estimated cost per quality-adjusted life year gained by vaccination in the context of current cervical cancer screening practices in the United States ranged from $3,906 to $14,723 (2005 US dollars), depending on factors such as whether herd immunity effects were assumed; the types of HPV targeted by the vaccine; and whether the benefits of preventing anal, vaginal, vulvar, and oropharyngeal cancers were included. The results of our simplified model were consistent with published studies based on more complex models when key assumptions were similar. This consistency is reassuring because models of varying complexity will be essential tools for policy makers in the development of optimal HPV vaccination strategies.
| S-EPMC2600200 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately impacted Americans in socially vulnerable areas. Unfortunately, these groups are also experiencing lower vaccination rates. To understand how strategic vaccine site placement may benefit high vulnerability populations, we extracted vaccine site locations for 26 U.S. states and linked these data to county-level adult vaccination rates and the CDC 2018 Social Vulnerability Index rankings. We fit quasi-Poisson regression models to compare vaccine site density between the highest and lowest SVI domain quartiles, and assessed whether greater vaccine site density mediated or modified the relationship between social vulnerability and vaccination rates. We found that high vulnerability counties by socioeconomic status had more vaccine sites per 10,000 residents, yet this higher vaccine site density did not reduce socioeconomic disparities in vaccination rates. Persistent vaccination inequities may reflect other structural barriers to access. Our results suggest that targeted vaccine site placement in high vulnerability counties may be necessary but insufficient for the goal of widespread, equitable vaccination.
| S-EPMC8450273 | biostudies-literature
Project description:What is an effective vaccination policy to end the COVID-19 pandemic? We address this question in a model of the dynamics of policy effectiveness drawing upon the results of a large panel survey implemented in Germany during the first and second waves of the pandemic. We observe increased opposition to vaccinations were they to be legally required. In contrast, for voluntary vaccinations, there was higher and undiminished support. We find that public distrust undermines vaccine acceptance, and is associated with a belief that the vaccine is ineffective and, if enforced, compromises individual freedom. We model how the willingness to be vaccinated may vary over time in response to the fraction of the population already vaccinated and whether vaccination has occurred voluntarily or not. A negative effect of enforcement on vaccine acceptance (of the magnitude observed in our panel or even considerably smaller) could result in a large increase in the numbers that would have to be vaccinated unwillingly in order to reach a herd-immunity target. Costly errors may be avoided if policy makers understand that citizens' preferences are not fixed but will be affected both by the crowding-out effect of enforcement and by conformism. Our findings have broad policy applicability beyond COVID-19 to cases in which voluntary citizen compliance is essential because state capacities are limited and because effectiveness may depend on the ways that the policies themselves alter citizens' beliefs and preferences.
| S-EPMC8237671 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundThe spread of COVID-19 has highlighted the long-standing health inequalities across the U.S. as neighborhoods with fewer resources were associated with higher rates of COVID-19 transmission. Although the stay-at-home order was one of the most effective methods to contain its spread, residents in lower-income neighborhoods faced barriers to practicing social distancing. We aimed to quantify the differential impact of stay-at-home policy on COVID-19 transmission and residents' mobility across neighborhoods of different levels of socioeconomic disadvantage.MethodsThis was a comparative interrupted time-series analysis at the county level. We included 2087 counties from 38 states which both implemented and lifted the state-wide stay-at-home order. Every county was assigned to one of four equally-sized groups based on its levels of disadvantage, represented by the Area Deprivation Index. Prevalence of COVID-19 was calculated by dividing the daily number of cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases by the number of residents from the 2010 Census. We used the Social Distancing Index (SDI), derived from the COVID-19 Impact Analysis Platform, to measure the mobility. For the evaluation of implementation, the observation started from Mar 1st 2020 to 1 day before lifting; and, for lifting, it ranged from 1 day after implementation to Jul 5th 2020. We calculated a comparative change of daily trends in COVID-19 prevalence and Social Distancing Index between counties with three highest disadvantage levels and those with the least level before and after the implementation and lifting of the stay-at-home order, separately.ResultsOn both stay-at-home implementation and lifting dates, COVID-19 prevalence was much higher among counties with the highest or lowest disadvantage level, while mobility decreased as the disadvantage level increased. Mobility of the most disadvantaged counties was least impacted by stay-at-home implementation and relaxation compared to counties with the most resources; however, disadvantaged counties experienced the largest relative increase in COVID-19 infection after both stay-at-home implementation and relaxation.ConclusionsNeighborhoods with varying levels of socioeconomic disadvantage reacted differently to the implementation and relaxation of COVID-19 mitigation policies. Policymakers should consider investing more resources in disadvantaged counties as the pandemic may not stop until most neighborhoods have it under control.
| S-EPMC8201431 | biostudies-literature
Project description:This study investigates the interactive effect of social capital and partisanship on COVID-19 vaccination rates. Using county-level data from the United States (U.S.), we empirically find that social capital is a double-edged sword. Its effect on the vaccination rate depends on the dominant partisanship of the jurisdiction. In more liberal counties, stronger social capital is a social asset that encourages people to seek vaccination and results in a higher vaccination rate. In contrast, in more conservative counties where the Trump-voting rate reaches 73% and beyond, stronger social capital becomes a social liability for public health by reinforcing residents' hesitancy toward or rejection of vaccinations, leading to a lower vaccination rate. This study implies the need for reducing the partisanship salience and investing in bridging and linking social capital in polarized communities.
| S-EPMC9434956 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Vaccination against pertussis has reduced the disease burden dramatically, but the most severe cases and almost all fatalities occur in infants too young to be vaccinated. Recent epidemiologic evidence suggests that targeted vaccination of mothers during pregnancy can reduce pertussis incidence in their infants. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of antepartum maternal vaccination in the United States, we created an age-stratified transmission model, incorporating empirical data on US contact patterns and explicitly modeling parent-infant exposure. Antepartum maternal vaccination incurs costs of $114,000 (95% prediction interval: 82,000, 183,000) per quality-adjusted life-year, in comparison with the strategy of no adult vaccination, and is cost-effective in the United States according to World Health Organization criteria. By contrast, vaccinating a second parent is not cost-effective, and vaccination of either parent postpartum is strongly dominated by antepartum maternal vaccination. Nonetheless, postpartum vaccination of mothers who were not vaccinated antepartum improves upon the current recommendation of untargeted adult vaccination. Additionally, the temporary direct protection of the infant due to maternal antibody transfer has efficacy for infants comparable to that conferred to toddlers by the full primary vaccination series. Efficient protection against pertussis for infants begins before birth. We highly recommend antepartum vaccination for as many US mothers as possible.
| S-EPMC4908210 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundShortly after the 2020 US election, initial evidence on first-generation COVID-19 vaccines showed 70-95% efficacy and minimal risks. Yet, many US adults expressed reluctance.AimsThe aim of this study was to compare persons willing and unwilling to be vaccinated against COVID-19 and to estimate the effects of vaccination attributes on uptake: proof of vaccination, vaccination setting, effectiveness, duration of immunity, and risk of severe side effects.MethodBetween 9 and 11 November 2020, 1153 US adults completed a discrete choice experiment (DCE) on Phase 2 of the CDC Vaccination Program (August 2021). Each of its eight choice tasks had three vaccination alternatives and "no vaccination for 6 months." An opt-out inflated logit model was estimated to test for respondent differences and attribute effects.ResultsRespondent demographics were unrelated to one's willingness to be vaccinated (p value 0.533), but those with less education were more likely to be unwilling (p < 0.001). Among those willing, uptake ranged from 61.70 to 97.75%, depending on the vaccination attributes. Effectiveness and safety had the largest effects. Offering proof of vaccination and a choice of setting increased uptake as much as increasing immunity from 3 to 6 months.ConclusionsTo maximize uptake, the CDC Program should standardize proof of vaccination and offer a choice of setting, instead of a one-size-fits-all approach. If the first-generation vaccines are efficacious, widely available, and free, overall predicted uptake is 68.81% by the end of Phase 2 (August 2021), which is well below the 75-90% needed for herd immunity. Further health preference research is necessary to uncover and address unwillingness and reluctance to vaccinate against COVID-19.
| S-EPMC8008018 | biostudies-literature