Trends in COVID-19 hospital outcomes in England before and after vaccine introduction, a cohort study.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kirwan PD
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9382625 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Trends in COVID-19 hospital outcomes in England before and after vaccine introduction, a cohort study.
Kirwan Peter D PD Charlett Andre A Birrell Paul P Elgohari Suzanne S Hope Russell R Mandal Sema S De Angelis Daniela D Presanis Anne M AM
Nature communications 20220817 1
Widespread vaccination campaigns have changed the landscape for COVID-19, vastly altering symptoms and reducing morbidity and mortality. We estimate trends in mortality by month of admission and vaccination status among those hospitalised with COVID-19 in England between March 2020 to September 2021, controlling for demographic factors and hospital load. Among 259,727 hospitalised COVID-19 cases, 51,948 (20.0%) experienced mortality in hospital. Hospitalised fatality risk ranged from 40.3% (95% ...[more]
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Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy is recommended by the World Health Organisation as effective and safe. However, there remains a lack of robust evidence to inform vaccination choices for women of childbearing potential in relation to their future pregnancies. Here we investigated the association between starting a course of COVID-19 vaccination before pregnancy and birth outcomes.MethodsWe analysed England-wide linked electronic health records for all pregnancies reaching at least 24 weeks gestation between 25th May 2021 and 28th October 2022. We estimated incidence rates and hazard ratios for birth and pregnancy outcomes by pre-pregnancy COVID-19 vaccination status.FindingsBased on 186,990 women, compared to starting a pregnancy unvaccinated, receiving COVID-19 vaccination within 12 months before pregnancy was associated with lower risks of very and extremely preterm birth and small-for-gestational age in term babies for any vaccine type (adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval: 0.74 [0.63, 0.88] and 0.94 [0.88, 1.00], respectively), and lower stillbirth risk in those receiving an mRNA vaccine (0.72 [0.52, 1.00]). Incidence of venous thromboembolism during pregnancy was higher amongst women receiving a viral-vector, but not an mRNA vaccine (1.54 [1.10, 2.16] and 1.02 [0.70, 1.50], respectively). Results were generally consistent for different dose regimens and across sensitivity analyses.InterpretationWe found evidence that pregnancies starting within 12 months from a first COVID-19 vaccination, compared to those in unvaccinated women, experienced fewer adverse birth outcomes, overall or in selected subgroups of the general population, accounting for potential confounders. An mRNA vaccine should be preferred to a viral-vector vaccine, to minimise safety issues, but where the latter is the only choice, it is still to be preferred to starting a pregnancy unvaccinated. The venous thromboembolism risk of the viral-vector vaccine was substantially lower compared to that attributable to SARS-CoV-2 infection in pregnancy or to commonly used medications such as hormone replacement therapy and oral contraceptives in the non-pregnant population.FundingUK National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR), UKRIMedical Research Council, UK Research and Innovation, The Alan Turing Institute, Health Data Research UK, the Department of Health and Social Care.
| S-EPMC11838104 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Vaccines have reduced the burden of COVID-19 disease in the UK since their introduction in December 2020. At the time of their introduction, it was unclear the extent to which COVID-19 vaccines would be accepted and how spatial variations in uptake would emerge, driven by socio-demographic characteristics. In this study, data from a large-scale cross-sectional study of over 17,000 adults, surveyed in September and October 2020, was used to provide sub-national forecasts of COVID-19 vaccine uptake across the UK. Bayesian multilevel regression and poststratification was deployed to forecast COVID-19 vaccine acceptance before vaccine rollout across 174 regions of the UK. Although it was found that a majority of the UK adult population would likely take the vaccine, there were substantial heterogeneities in uptake intent across the UK. Large urban areas, including London and North West England, females, Black or Black British ethnicities, and Polish speakers were among the least likely to state an intent to vaccinate. These predicted spatial trends were validated by comparison to observed observed COVID-19 vaccine uptake in late 2021. The methodological approaches deployed in this validated forecasting study may be replicable for the prediction of routine childhood immunisation uptake. Given recent pandemic-induced disruptions to routine immunisation systems, reliable sub-national forecasts of vaccine uptake may provide policymakers and stakeholders early warning signals of potential vaccine confidence issues.
| S-EPMC9746557 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundA high BMI has been associated with a reduced immune response to vaccination against influenza. We aimed to investigate the association between BMI and COVID-19 vaccine uptake, vaccine effectiveness, and risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after vaccination by using a large, representative population-based cohort from England.MethodsIn this population-based cohort study, we used the QResearch database of general practice records and included patients aged 18 years or older who were registered at a practice that was part of the database in England between Dec 8, 2020 (date of the first vaccination in the UK), to Nov 17, 2021, with available data on BMI. Uptake was calculated as the proportion of people with zero, one, two, or three doses of the vaccine across BMI categories. Effectiveness was assessed through a nested matched case-control design to estimate odds ratios (OR) for severe COVID-19 outcomes (ie, admission to hospital or death) in people who had been vaccinated versus those who had not, considering vaccine dose and time periods since vaccination. Vaccine effectiveness against infection with SARS-CoV-2 was also investigated. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard models estimated the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes associated with BMI (reference BMI 23 kg/m2) after vaccination.FindingsAmong 9 171 524 participants (mean age 52 [SD 19] years; BMI 26·7 [5·6] kg/m2), 566 461 tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 during follow-up, of whom 32 808 were admitted to hospital and 14 389 died. Of the total study sample, 19·2% (1 758 689) were unvaccinated, 3·1% (287 246) had one vaccine dose, 52·6% (4 828 327) had two doses, and 25·0% (2 297 262) had three doses. In people aged 40 years and older, uptake of two or three vaccine doses was more than 80% among people with overweight or obesity, which was slightly lower in people with underweight (70-83%). Although significant heterogeneity was found across BMI groups, protection against severe COVID-19 disease (comparing people who were vaccinated vs those who were not) was high after 14 days or more from the second dose for hospital admission (underweight: OR 0·51 [95% CI 0·41-0·63]; healthy weight: 0·34 [0·32-0·36]; overweight: 0·32 [0·30-0·34]; and obesity: 0·32 [0·30-0·34]) and death (underweight: 0·60 [0·36-0·98]; healthy weight: 0·39 [0·33-0·47]; overweight: 0·30 [0·25-0·35]; and obesity: 0·26 [0·22-0·30]). In the vaccinated cohort, there were significant linear associations between BMI and COVID-19 hospitalisation and death after the first dose, and J-shaped associations after the second dose.InterpretationUsing BMI categories, there is evidence of protection against severe COVID-19 in people with overweight or obesity who have been vaccinated, which was of a similar magnitude to that of people of healthy weight. Vaccine effectiveness was slightly lower in people with underweight, in whom vaccine uptake was also the lowest for all ages. In the vaccinated cohort, there were increased risks of severe COVID-19 outcomes for people with underweight or obesity compared with the vaccinated population with a healthy weight. These results suggest the need for targeted efforts to increase uptake in people with low BMI (<18·5 kg/m2), in whom uptake is lower and vaccine effectiveness seems to be reduced. Strategies to achieve and maintain a healthy weight should be prioritised at the population level, which could help reduce the burden of COVID-19 disease.FundingUK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.
| S-EPMC9246477 | biostudies-literature
Project description: Not available
| S-BSST563 | biostudies-other
Project description:New onsets of chronic urticaria (CU) have been reported after repeated immunizations, mainly with the Moderna mRNA-1273 vaccine (Spikevax). This study aims to evaluate patients with CU after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination. The contribution of SARS-Cov2 infection, atopy and IgE against the vaccine was analyzed. We monitored the features of patients who developed CU after vaccination in the Canton of Vaud through two surveys conducted in 2022 and 2023. Fifty individuals with CU underwent blood tests, and their results were compared with individuals without a history of urticaria (N=135). The presence of anti-vaccine IgE was detected with basophil activation tests (BAT). We assessed anti-SARS-Cov2 humoral response, and the presence of IgEs against common respiratory allergens (Phadiatop) as a surrogate for atopy. Post-vaccination CU occurred after a median interval of 10 days and significantly more after the Spikevax booster, affecting middle-aged individuals (median 41, 66% females). In 2023, CU was still active in 53% of the cases. Inducible forms of CU, primarily dermographism, were reported in 54% (2022) and 61% (2023) of the cases. BAT positivity was not specific to CU, anti-nucleocapsid positivity, or atopy but was significantly associated with higher anti-spike neutralizing activities and younger age. Four CU patients tolerated an additional dose of mRNA vaccine with no disease exacerbation/recurrence. The spikevax booster induced anti-vaccine IgE independently of CU, the latter being not directly associated with COVID-19 infection nor atopy. The tolerance to a new booster in 4/4 patients suggests that the Spikevax vaccine indirectly triggered CU in predisposed individuals.
2024-07-26 | GSE272645 | GEO
Project description:ObjectivesHealthcare workers (HCWs) were the first to be prioritised for COVID-19 vaccination. This study aims to estimate the COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 symptomatic infection among HCWs in Portuguese hospitals.DesignProspective cohort study.Setting and participantsWe analysed data from HCWs (all professional categories) from three central hospitals: one in the Lisbon and Tagus Valley region and two in the central region of mainland Portugal, between December 2020 and March 2022. VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection was estimated as one minus the confounder adjusted HRs by Cox models considering age group, sex, self-reported chronic disease and occupational exposure to patients diagnosed with COVID-19 as adjustment variables.ResultsDuring the 15 months of follow-up, the 3034 HCWs contributed a total of 3054 person-years at risk, and 581 SARS-CoV-2 events occurred. Most participants were already vaccinated with a booster dose (n=2653, 87%), some are vaccinated with only the primary scheme (n=369, 12.6%) and a few remained unvaccinated (n=12, 0.4%) at the end of the study period. VE against symptomatic infection was 63.6% (95% CI 22.6% to 82.9%) for HCWs vaccinated with two doses and 55.9% (95% CI -1.3% to 80.8%) for HCWs vaccinated with one booster dose. Point estimate VE was higher for individuals with two doses taken between 14 days and 98 days (VE=71.9%; 95% CI 32.3% to 88.3%).ConclusionThis cohort study found a high COVID-19 VE against symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in Portuguese HCWs after vaccination with one booster dose, even after Omicron variant occurrence. The small sample size, the high vaccine coverage, the very low number of unvaccinated individuals and the few events observed during the study period contributed to the low precision of the estimates.
| S-EPMC10163328 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundIt is unclear what effect the pattern of health-care use before admission to hospital with COVID-19 (index admission) has on the long-term outcomes for patients. We sought to describe mortality and emergency readmission to hospital after discharge following the index admission (index discharge), and to assess associations between these outcomes and patterns of health-care use before such admissions.MethodsWe did a national, retrospective, complete cohort study by extracting data from several national databases and linking the databases for all adult patients admitted to hospital in Scotland with COVID-19. We used latent class trajectory modelling to identify distinct clusters of patients on the basis of their emergency admissions to hospital in the 2 years before the index admission. The primary outcomes were mortality and emergency readmission up to 1 year after index admission. We used multivariable regression models to explore associations between these outcomes and patient demographics, vaccination status, level of care received in hospital, and previous emergency hospital use.FindingsBetween March 1, 2020, and Oct 25, 2021, 33 580 patients were admitted to hospital with COVID-19 in Scotland. Overall, the Kaplan-Meier estimate of mortality within 1 year of index admission was 29·6% (95% CI 29·1-30·2). The cumulative incidence of emergency hospital readmission within 30 days of index discharge was 14·4% (95% CI 14·0-14·8), with the number increasing to 35·6% (34·9-36·3) patients at 1 year. Among the 33 580 patients, we identified four distinct patterns of previous emergency hospital use: no admissions (n=18 772 [55·9%]); minimal admissions (n=12 057 [35·9%]); recently high admissions (n=1931 [5·8%]), and persistently high admissions (n=820 [2·4%]). Patients with recently or persistently high admissions were older, more multimorbid, and more likely to have hospital-acquired COVID-19 than patients with no or minimal admissions. People in the minimal, recently high, and persistently high admissions groups had an increased risk of mortality and hospital readmission compared with those in the no admissions group. Compared with the no admissions group, mortality was highest in the recently high admissions group (post-hospital mortality HR 2·70 [95% CI 2·35-2·81]; p<0·0001) and the risk of readmission was highest in the persistently high admissions group (3·23 [2·89-3·61]; p<0·0001).InterpretationLong-term mortality and readmission rates for patients hospitalised with COVID-19 were high; within 1 year, one in three patients had died and a third had been readmitted as an emergency. Patterns of hospital use before index admission were strongly predictive of mortality and readmission risk, independent of age, pre-existing comorbidities, and COVID-19 vaccination status. This increasingly precise identification of individuals at high risk of poor outcomes from COVID-19 will enable targeted support.FundingChief Scientist Office Scotland, UK National Institute for Health Research, and UK Research and Innovation.
| S-EPMC10306342 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Objective To describe trends in socioeconomic inequality in the proportion of deaths occurring in hospital, during a period of sustained effort by the NHS in England to improve end of life care. Methods Whole-population, small area longitudinal study involving 5,260,871 patients of all ages who died in England from 2001/2002 to 2011/2012. Our primary measure of inequality was the slope index of inequality. This represents the estimated gap between the most and least deprived neighbourhood in England, allowing for the gradient in between. Neighbourhoods were geographic Lower Layer Super Output Areas containing about 1500 people each. Results The overall proportion of patients dying in hospital decreased from 49.5% to 43.6% during the study period, after initially increasing to 52.0% in 2004/2005. There was substantial 'pro-rich' inequality, with an estimated difference of 5.95 percentage points in the proportion of people dying in hospital (confidence interval 5.26 to 6.63), comparing the most and least deprived neighbourhoods in 2011/2012. There was no significant reduction in this gap over time, either in absolute terms or relative to the mean, despite the overall reduction in the proportion of patients dying in hospital. Conclusions Efforts to reduce the proportion of patients dying in hospital in England have been successful overall but did not reduce inequality. Greater understanding of the reasons for such inequality is required before policy changes can be determined.
| S-EPMC5548360 | biostudies-other
Project description:There is conflicting evidence regarding the effect of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in pregnancy. Risk factors for COVID-19 overlap with risk factors for pregnancy complications. We aimed to assess the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection on pregnancy outcomes. A retrospective interrupted time-series and matched cohort analysis was performed. Singleton pregnancies completed between 1st January 2016 and 31st January 2021 were included. Trends in outcomes were analysed over time. Modelled COVID-19 transmission data were applied to deliveries since 1st January 2020 to assign a risk of COVID-19 to each pregnancy, and incorporated into a regression model of birthweight. Confirmed COVID-19 cases were matched to controls delivered in the pre-pandemic period, and maternal and neonatal outcomes compared. 43,802 pregnancies were included, with 8343 in the model of birthweight. There was no increase in the risk of stillbirth (p = 0.26) or neonatal death (p = 0.64) during the pandemic. There was no association between modelled COVID-19 attack rate (%) in any trimester and birthweight (first trimester p = 0.50, second p = 0.15, third p = 0.16). 214 COVID-positive women were matched to controls. Preterm birth was more common in symptomatic cases (14/62, 22.6%) compared to asymptomatic cases (9/109, 8.3%, p = 0.008) and controls (5/62, 8.1%, p = 0.025). Iatrogenic preterm birth was more common in cases (21/214, 9.8%) than controls (9/214, 4.2%, p = 0.02). All other examined outcomes were similar between groups. There was no significant impact of COVID-19 on the examined birth outcomes available. Symptomatic COVID-19 should be considered a risk factor for preterm birth, possibly due to an increase in iatrogenic deliveries for maternal indications.
| S-EPMC8766432 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceIn early 2020, the United States declared a public health emergency in response to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and implemented a variety of social distancing measures. The association between the COVID-19 pandemic and the number of pediatric admissions is unclear.ObjectiveTo determine the changes in patterns of pediatric admissions in 2020 compared with the prior decade.Design, setting, and participantsThis cross-sectional study included 49 US hospitals contributing to the Pediatric Health Information Systems database. Inpatient admissions were transformed into time-series data, and ensemble forecasting models were generated to analyze admissions across a range of diagnoses in 2020 compared with previous years. The setting was inpatient admissions. All patients discharged between January 1, 2010, and June 30, 2020, from an inpatient hospital encounter were included.Main outcomes and measuresNumber of hospital admissions by primary diagnosis for each encounter.ResultsOf 5 424 688 inpatient encounters among 3 372 839 patients (median [interquartile range] age, 5.1 [0.7-13.3] years; 2 823 748 [52.1%] boys; 3 171 224 [58.5%] White individuals) at 49 hospitals, 213 571 (3.9%) were between January 1, 2020, and June 30, 2020. There was a decrease in the number of admissions beginning in March 2020 compared with the period from 2010 to 2019. At the nadir, admissions in April 2020 were reduced 45.4% compared with prior years (23 798 in April 2020 compared with a median [interquartile range] of 43 550 [42 110-43 946] in April 2010-2019). Inflation-adjusted hospital charges decreased 27.7% in the second quarter of 2020 compared with prior years ($4 327 580 511 in 2020 compared with a median [interquartile range] of $5 983 142 102 [$5 762 690 022-$6 324 978 456] in 2010-2019). Seasonal patterns were evident between 2010 and 2019 for a variety of common pediatric conditions, including asthma, atrial septal defects, bronchiolitis, diabetic ketoacidosis, Kawasaki syndrome, mental health admissions, and trauma. Ensemble models were able to discern seasonal patterns in admission diagnoses and accurately predicted admission rates from July 2019 until December 2019 but not from January 2020 to June 2020. All diagnoses except for birth decreased below the model 95% CIs between January 2020 and June 2020.Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional study, pediatric admissions to US hospitals decreased in 2020 across an array of pediatric conditions. Although some conditions may have decreased in incidence, others may represent unmet needs in pediatric care during the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC7881361 | biostudies-literature