Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Australian life expectancy.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Canudas-Romo V
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9383219 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Quantifying impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on Australian life expectancy.
Canudas-Romo Vladimir V Houle Brian B Adair Tim T
International journal of epidemiology 20221001 5
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Project description:BackgroundVariations in the age patterns and magnitudes of excess deaths, as well as differences in population sizes and age structures, make cross-national comparisons of the cumulative mortality impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic challenging. Life expectancy is a widely used indicator that provides a clear and cross-nationally comparable picture of the population-level impacts of the pandemic on mortality.MethodsLife tables by sex were calculated for 29 countries, including most European countries, Chile and the USA, for 2015-2020. Life expectancy at birth and at age 60 years for 2020 were contextualized against recent trends between 2015 and 2019. Using decomposition techniques, we examined which specific age groups contributed to reductions in life expectancy in 2020 and to what extent reductions were attributable to official COVID-19 deaths.ResultsLife expectancy at birth declined from 2019 to 2020 in 27 out of 29 countries. Males in the USA and Lithuania experienced the largest losses in life expectancy at birth during 2020 (2.2 and 1.7 years, respectively), but reductions of more than an entire year were documented in 11 countries for males and 8 among females. Reductions were mostly attributable to increased mortality above age 60 years and to official COVID-19 deaths.ConclusionsThe COVID-19 pandemic triggered significant mortality increases in 2020 of a magnitude not witnessed since World War II in Western Europe or the breakup of the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe. Females from 15 countries and males from 10 ended up with lower life expectancy at birth in 2020 than in 2015.
| S-EPMC8500096 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveTo investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on life expectancy at birth (e0) for 51 Asian countries and territories from January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021.MethodBased on age-sex-specific mortality used for estimating the changes in e0 for years 2019, 2020, and 2021 from the 2022 revision of the World Population Prospects, we employed Arriaga's discrete method to decompose changes in e0 into both absolute and relative contributions of changes in age-specific death rate, and further obtained the age-sex-specific contribution to changes in e0 by country/territory and period (i.e., 2019-2020 and 2020-2021) for Asia.FindingsThe COVID-19 pandemic reduced 1.66 years in e0 of the Asian population from 2019 to 2021, slightly lower than the world average of 1.74 years. South Asia had a high loss of 3.01 years, whereas Eastern Asia had almost no changes. Oman, Lebanon, India, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Indonesia, and the Philippines experienced a high loss of above 2.5 years in e0. Despite significant national and territorial variations, the decline of e0 in Asia was mostly from the age group of 60-79 years, followed by age groups of 80 + and 45-59 years; and age groups of children contributed little (i.e., 0-4 and 5-14 years old). Males suffered more losses than females in this pandemic. Asian nations saw less loss in e0 in the second year of the pandemic, i.e., 2020-2021, than in the first year, i.e., 2019-2020, but this recovery trend was not observed in Southern Asia and South-Eastern Asia. Countries from Central Asia and Western Asia, such as Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Lebanon, and Oman, had extraordinarily more losses in e0 in the first year at ages around 70.ConclusionThe COVID-19 pandemic had significantly affected e0 of Asian populations, and most contribution to the reduction of e0 came from the three older age groups, 60-79 years, 80 + years, and 45-59 years, with great variations across countries/territories. Our findings could have important implications for development of more resilient public health systems in Asian societies with better policy interventions for vulnerable demographic groups.
| S-EPMC10410782 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND There has been little systematic research on the mortality impact of COVID-19 in the Native American population. OBJECTIVE We provide estimates of loss of life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 relative to 2019 for the Native American population. METHODS We use data on age-specific all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER and the 2019 life table recently released by the National Vital Statistics System for Native Americans to calculate life tables for the Native American population in 2020 and 2021 and to obtain estimates of life expectancy reductions during the COVID-19 pandemic. RESULTS The pandemic has set Native Americans further behind other major racial/ethnic groups in terms of life expectancy. The estimated loss in life expectancy at birth for Native Americans is 4.5 years in 2020 and 6.4 years in 2021 relative to 2019. CONCLUSIONS These results underscore the disproportionate share of deaths experienced by Native Americans: a loss in life expectancy at birth in 2020 that is more than three years above that for Whites and about 1.5 years above the losses for the Black and Latino populations. Despite a successful vaccination campaign among Native Americans, the estimated loss in life expectancy at birth in 2021 unexpectedly exceeds that in 2020. CONTRIBUTION The increased loss in life expectancy in 2021, despite higher vaccination rates than in other racial/ethnic groups, highlights the huge challenges faced by Native Americans in their efforts to control the deleterious consequences of the pandemic.
| S-EPMC9733701 | biostudies-literature
Project description:While the direct effects of the pandemic are well documented, less is known about the indirect ones, including changes in healthcare provision or human behavior. This paper aims to study the impact of indirect consequences on mortality, focusing on two leading causes (cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19) and places of death in Czechia, during the COVID-19 pandemic, one of the most severely affected European countries. The analysis was performed using data from the Czech Statistical Office and the Institute of Health Information and Statistics. The study compares annual mortality changes during three time periods: pre-pandemic (2018-2019), pandemic beginning and peaking (2020-2021), and pandemic fading (2022). Pandemic years were covered by the WHO public health emergency of international concern. Abridged life tables were computed, and Pollard's decomposition was used to calculate the contributions of causes and places of death on annual differences in life expectancy. Seasonal decomposition of monthly time series revealed an increase in cardiovascular mortality at home or in social care facilities corresponding to limitations in healthcare. While COVID-19 had a systemic negative effect on life expectancy during the pandemic, the impact of cardiovascular mortality according to place of death changed over time. This study contributes to the evidence base of systemic risks during health crises and emergency response.
| S-EPMC10676350 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The COVID-19 pandemic triggered an unprecedented rise in mortality that translated into life expectancy losses around the world, with only a few exceptions. We estimate life expectancy changes in 29 countries since 2020 (including most of Europe, the United States and Chile), attribute them to mortality changes by age group and compare them with historic life expectancy shocks. Our results show divergence in mortality impacts of the pandemic in 2021. While countries in western Europe experienced bounce backs from life expectancy losses of 2020, eastern Europe and the United States witnessed sustained and substantial life expectancy deficits. Life expectancy deficits during fall/winter 2021 among people ages 60+ and <60 were negatively correlated with measures of vaccination uptake across countries (r60+ = -0.86; two-tailed P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval, -0.94 to -0.69; r<60 = -0.74; two-tailed P < 0.001; 95% confidence interval, -0.88 to -0.46). In contrast to 2020, the age profile of excess mortality in 2021 was younger, with those in under-80 age groups contributing more to life expectancy losses. However, even in 2021, registered COVID-19 deaths continued to account for most life expectancy losses.
| S-EPMC9755047 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundAustralia provides a valuable international case study of life expectancy during the pandemic. In contrast to many other countries, it experienced relatively stringent restrictions and low COVID-19 mortality during 2020-21, followed by relaxation of these restrictions when high vaccination rates were achieved. This study measures Australia's life expectancy trends and the contributions of age group and causes of death, during the pandemic.MethodsTrends in life expectancy at birth in Australia and its states and territories were measured from 2020 to 2022. The contributions of age group and cause of death to these trends were measured using decomposition methods. Life expectancy was compared with other high-income countries.ResultsAustralia's life expectancy fell by more than half a year in 2022, following a sharp increase in 2020 and moderate decline in 2021. For the 3 years 2020 to 2022, life expectancy was 0.13 years (95% confidence interval 0.07-0.19) higher for males and 0.09 years (0.03-0.14) higher for females versus 2017-19. Australia's life expectancy increase in 2020 was larger than that in the vast majority of other high-income countries, but its decline in 2022 was greater than in other countries whose life expectancy rose in the first year of the pandemic. The small negative contribution of COVID-19 deaths to life expectancy in Australia was more than offset by lower non-communicable disease mortality. There were only small differences in life expectancy change between the states with the most stringent restrictions (Victoria and New South Wales) and the rest of Australia.ConclusionsAustralia's life expectancy trends during 2020-22 were relatively favourable compared with other high-income countries, with the exception of its sharp decline in 2022 once restrictions were loosened.
| S-EPMC10749770 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The expected year-on-year intrinsic mortality variations/changes are largely overlooked in the existing research when estimating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality patterns. To fill this gap, this study provides a new assessment of the loss of life expectancy caused by COVID-19 in 27 countries considering both the actual and the expected changes in life expectancy between 2019 and 2020. Life expectancy in 2020 and the expected life expectancy in the absence of COVID-19 are estimated using the Lee-Carter model and data primarily from the Human Mortality Database. The results show that life expectancy in 21 of the 27 countries was expected to increase in 2020 had COVID-19 not occurred. By considering the expected mortality changes between 2019 and 2020, the study shows that, on average, the loss of life expectancy among the 27 countries in 2020 amounted to 1.33 year (95% CI 1.29-1.37) at age 15 and 0.91 years (95% CI 0.88-0.94) at age 65. Our results suggest that if the year-on-year intrinsic variations/changes in mortality were considered, the effects of COVID-19 on mortality are more profound than previously understood. This is particularly prominent for countries experiencing greater life expectancy increase in recent years.
| S-EPMC10233553 | biostudies-literature
Project description:No studies have yet examined high-resolution shifts in the spatial patterns of human movement in Australia throughout 2020 and 2021, a period coincident with the repeated enactment and removal of varied governmental restrictions aimed at reducing community transmission of SARS-CoV-2. We compared overlapping timeseries of COVID-19 pandemic-related restrictions, epidemiological data on cases and vaccination rates, and high-resolution human movement data to characterize population-level responses to the pandemic in Australian cities. We found that restrictions on human movement and/or mandatory business closures reduced the average population-level weekly movement volumes in cities, as measured by aggregated travel time, by almost half. Of the movements that continued to occur, long movements reduced more dramatically than short movements, likely indicating that people stayed closer to home. We also found that the repeated lockdowns did not reduce their impact on human movement, but the effect of the restrictions on human movement waned as the duration of restrictions increased. Lastly, we found that after restrictions ceased, the subsequent surge in SARS-CoV-2 transmission coincided with a substantial, non-mandated drop in human movement volume. These findings have implications for public health policy makers when faced with anticipating responses to restrictions during future emergency situations.
| S-EPMC10385321 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Few reliable estimates have been available for assessing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on mortality among Native Americans. Using deidentified publicly available data on deaths and populations by age, we estimated life expectancy for the years 2019-2022 for single-race non-Hispanic Native Americans. Life expectancy in 2022 was 67.8 years, 2.3 years higher than in 2021 but a huge 4-year loss from 2019. Although our life expectancy estimates for 2022 varied under different assumptions about racial/ethnic classification and age misreporting errors, all estimates were lower than the average for middle-income countries. Estimates of losses and gains in life expectancy were consistent across assumptions. Large reductions in COVID-19 death rates between 2021 and 2022 were largely offset by increases in rates of death from unintentional injuries (particularly drug overdoses), chronic liver disease, diabetes, and heart disease, underscoring the difficulties facing Native Americans in achieving reductions in mortality, let alone returning to levels of mortality prior to the pandemic. Serious data problems have persisted for many years, but the scarcity and inadequacy of estimates during the pandemic have underscored the urgent need for timely and accurate demographic data on the Native American population.
| S-EPMC11145904 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFrom a demographic perspective, the impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on life expectancy is not clear. Hence, there is a need to study the number of years of life lost concerning the existing average life expectancy due to COVID-19 in India.ObjectiveThis study aimed to estimate the impact of life expectancy due to the COVID-19 pandemic in India.MethodologyWe considered day-wise age-specific mortality due to COVID-19 which was extracted from the COVID-19 data repository from March 11, 2020, to June 30, 2021, in India. All-cause mortality was collected from the United Nations population estimates. An abridged life table technique was utilized for calculating life expectancies based on all-cause mortality and mortality due to COVID-19. MortPak software was used to calculate the life expectancy with and without the COVID-19 pandemic. Life expectancy at birth in different age groups was estimated with respect to with and without COVID-19.ResultsA total of 399,459 deaths due to COVID-19 were distributed age wise, and their corresponding life expectancy was calculated. The general mortality was compared with COVID-19 mortality for the various age groups, and it was observed that mortality due to COVID-19 was significantly higher among the elderly age group [i.e., 45 to 60 years (36%) and > 60 years (51%)] when compared with < 25 years (1%) and 26-44 years (11%) (trend Chi-square 7.59; p = 0.001). The life expectancy without and with COVID-19 was 69.28 years and 69.16 years, respectively.ConclusionOverall, it was estimated that COVID-19 has an impact on life expectancy by 0.12 years during the study period. Even though mortality due to COVID-19 was high, factors such as lockdown, vaccination, and accidents also had an influence on mortality. Thus, there is a need to assess the impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy in future.
| S-EPMC9623254 | biostudies-literature