Dataset Information

Reliably Assessing Duration of Protection for COVID-19 Vaccines.

ABSTRACT: Decision-making about vaccination and boosting schedules for COVID-19 hinges on reliable methods for evaluating the longevity of vaccine protection. We show that modeling of protection as a piecewise linear function of time since vaccination for the log hazard ratio of the vaccine effect provides more reliable estimates of vaccine effectiveness at the end of an observation period and also more reliably detects plateaus in protective effectiveness as compared with the traditional method of estimating a constant vaccine effect over each time period. This approach will be useful for analyzing data pertaining to COVID-19 vaccines and other vaccines where rapid and reliable understanding of vaccine effectiveness over time is desired.

SUBMITTER: Lin DY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9383791 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Reliably Assessing Duration of Protection for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccines.

Lin Dan-Yu DY Zeng Donglin D Gu Yu Y Krause Philip R PR Fleming Thomas R TR

The Journal of infectious diseases 20221101 11

Decision making about vaccination and boosting schedules for coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) hinges on reliable methods for evaluating the longevity of vaccine protection. We show that modeling of protection as a piecewise linear function of time since vaccination for the log hazard ratio of the vaccine effect provides more reliable estimates of vaccine effectiveness at the end of an observation period and also detects plateaus in protective effectiveness more reliably than the standard meth ...[more]

PMID: 35445269

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Project description:BackgroundVaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), have been used since December 2020 in the United Kingdom. Real-world data have shown the vaccines to be highly effective against Covid-19 and related severe disease and death. Vaccine effectiveness may wane over time since the receipt of the second dose of the ChAdOx1-S (ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) and BNT162b2 vaccines.MethodsWe used a test-negative case-control design to estimate vaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 and related hospitalization and death in England. Effectiveness of the ChAdOx1-S and BNT162b2 vaccines was assessed according to participant age and status with regard to coexisting conditions and over time since receipt of the second vaccine dose to investigate waning of effectiveness separately for the B.1.1.7 (alpha) and B.1.617.2 (delta) variants.ResultsVaccine effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 with the delta variant peaked in the early weeks after receipt of the second dose and then decreased by 20 weeks to 44.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 43.2 to 45.4) with the ChAdOx1-S vaccine and to 66.3% (95% CI, 65.7 to 66.9) with the BNT162b2 vaccine. Waning of vaccine effectiveness was greater in persons 65 years of age or older than in those 40 to 64 years of age. At 20 weeks or more after vaccination, vaccine effectiveness decreased less against both hospitalization, to 80.0% (95% CI, 76.8 to 82.7) with the ChAdOx1-S vaccine and 91.7% (95% CI, 90.2 to 93.0) with the BNT162b2 vaccine, and death, to 84.8% (95% CI, 76.2 to 90.3) and 91.9% (95% CI, 88.5 to 94.3), respectively. Greater waning in vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization was observed in persons 65 years of age or older in a clinically extremely vulnerable group and in persons 40 to 64 years of age with underlying medical conditions than in healthy adults.ConclusionsWe observed limited waning in vaccine effectiveness against Covid-19-related hospitalization and death at 20 weeks or more after vaccination with two doses of the ChAdOx1-S or BNT162b2 vaccine. Waning was greater in older adults and in those in a clinical risk group.

Project description:The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants calls for continuous monitoring of vaccine effectiveness (VE). We estimated the absolute effectiveness of complete 2-dose primary vaccination and booster vaccination with COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, and the duration of protection against Delta and Omicron BA.1 symptomatic infection and severe outcomes. French residents aged ≥50 years, who presented with SARS-CoV-2-like symptoms and tested for SARS-CoV-2 between June 6, 2021 and February 10, 2022 were included. A test-negative study was conducted to estimate VE against symptomatic infection, using conditional logistic regression models. Cox proportional hazard regressions were performed to assess additional protection against severe COVID-19 outcomes (any hospitalization, and intensive care units [ICU] admission or in-hospital death). In total, 273732 cases and 735 919 controls were included. VE against symptomatic infection after 2-doses vaccination was 86% (95% CI: 75-92%) for Delta and 70% (58-79%) for Omicron, 7-30 days post vaccination. Protection waned over time, reaching 60% (57-63%) against Delta and 20% (16.-24%) for Omicron BA.1 > 120 days after vaccination. The booster dose fully restored protection against symtpomatic Delta infection (95% [81-99%]) but only partially against symptomatic Omicron BA.1 infection (63% [59-67%]). VE against Delta-related severe outcomes was above 95% with 2 doses, and persisted for at least four months. Protection against any Omicron BA.1-hospitalization was 92% (65%-99%) at 8-30 days, and 82% (67%-91%) > 120 days from the second dose. Against BA.1 ICU admission or in-patient death, VE stood at 98% (0-100%) at 8-30 days, and was 90% (40-99%) > 120 days from the second dose. Protection confered by mRNA vaccines against severe disease caused by either Delta or Omicron BA.1 appeared high and sustained over time. Protection against symptomatic diseases after 2 doses decreased rapidly, especially against Omicron BA.1. A booster dose restored high protection against Delta but only a partial one against Omicron BA.1.

Dataset Information

Reliably Assessing Duration of Protection for COVID-19 Vaccines.

Publications

Reliably Assessing Duration of Protection for Coronavirus Disease 2019 Vaccines.

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