New Phylogenetic Models Incorporating Interval-Specific Dispersal Dynamics Improve Inference of Disease Spread.

ABSTRACT: Phylodynamic methods reveal the spatial and temporal dynamics of viral geographic spread, and have featured prominently in studies of the COVID-19 pandemic. Virtually all such studies are based on phylodynamic models that assume-despite direct and compelling evidence to the contrary-that rates of viral geographic dispersal are constant through time. Here, we: (1) extend phylodynamic models to allow both the average and relative rates of viral dispersal to vary independently between pre-specified time intervals; (2) implement methods to infer the number and timing of viral dispersal events between areas; and (3) develop statistics to assess the absolute fit of discrete-geographic phylodynamic models to empirical datasets. We first validate our new methods using simulations, and then apply t

SUBMITTER: Gao J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9384482 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature