Estimating the time-varying reproduction number for COVID-19 in South Africa during the first four waves using multiple measures of incidence for public and private sectors across four waves.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

We aimed to quantify transmission trends in South Africa during the first four waves of the COVID-19 pandemic using estimates of the time-varying reproduction number (R) and to compare the robustness of R estimates based on three different data sources and using data from public and private sector service providers.

Methods

We estimated R from March 2020 through April 2022, nationally and by province, based on time series of rt-PCR-confirmed cases, hospitalizations, and hospital-associated deaths, using a method which models daily incidence as a weighted sum of past incidence. We also estimated R separately using public and private sector data.

Results

Nationally, the maximum case-based R following the introduction of lockdown measures was 1.55 (CI: 1.43-1.

SUBMITTER: Bingham J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9387150 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature