Quantifying the future risk of dengue under climate change in Japan.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In metropolitan Tokyo in 2014, Japan experienced its first domestic dengue outbreak since 1945. The objective of the present study was to quantitatively assess the future risk of dengue in Japan using climate change scenarios in a high-resolution geospatial environment by building on a solid theory as a baseline in consideration of future adaptation strategies.

Methods

Using climate change scenarios of the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate version 6 (MIROC6), representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, we computed the daily average temperature and embedded this in the effective reproduction number of dengue, R(T), to calculate the extinction probability and interepidemic period across Japan.

Results

In June and

SUBMITTER: Hayashi K 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9389175 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature