Dataset Information

Adaptive Preferential Sampling in Phylodynamics With an Application to SARS-CoV-2.

ABSTRACT: Longitudinal molecular data of rapidly evolving viruses and pathogens provide information about disease spread and complement traditional surveillance approaches based on case count data. The coalescent is used to model the genealogy that represents the sample ancestral relationships. The basic assumption is that coalescent events occur at a rate inversely proportional to the effective population size N _e (t), a time-varying measure of genetic diversity. When the sampling process (collection of samples over time) depends on N _e (t), the coalescent and the sampling processes can be jointly modeled to improve estimation of N _e (t). Failing to do so can lead to bias due to model misspecification. However, the way that the sampling process depends on the effective population size may vary over time. We introduce an approach where the sampling process is modeled as an inhomogeneous Poisson process with rate equal to the product of N _e (t) and a time-varying coefficient, making minimal assumptions on their functional shapes via Markov random field priors. We provide efficient algorithms for inference, show the model performance vis-a-vis alternative methods in a simulation study, and apply our model to SARS-CoV-2 sequences from Los Angeles and Santa Clara counties. The methodology is implemented and available in the R package adapref. Supplementary files for this article are available online.

SUBMITTER: Cappello L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9409340 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Adaptive Preferential Sampling in Phylodynamics With an Application to SARS-CoV-2.

Cappello Lorenzo L Palacios Julia A JA

Journal of computational and graphical statistics : a joint publication of American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Interface Foundation of North America 20211129 2

Longitudinal molecular data of rapidly evolving viruses and pathogens provide information about disease spread and complement traditional surveillance approaches based on case count data. The coalescent is used to model the genealogy that represents the sample ancestral relationships. The basic assumption is that coalescent events occur at a rate inversely proportional to the effective population size N e (t), a time-varying measure of genetic diversity. When the ...[more]

PMID: 36035966

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Project description:We provide an unsupervised adaptive sampling strategy capable of producing μs-timescale molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of large biosystems using many-body polarizable force fields (PFFs). The global exploration problem is decomposed into a set of separate MD trajectories that can be restarted within a selective process to achieve sufficient phase-space sampling. Accurate statistical properties can be obtained through reweighting. Within this highly parallel setup, the Tinker-HP package can be powered by an arbitrary large number of GPUs on supercomputers, reducing exploration time from years to days. This approach is used to tackle the urgent modeling problem of the SARS-CoV-2 Main Protease (Mpro) producing more than 38 μs of all-atom simulations of its apo (ligand-free) dimer using the high-resolution AMOEBA PFF. The first 15.14 μs simulation (physiological pH) is compared to available non-PFF long-timescale simulation data. A detailed clustering analysis exhibits striking differences between FFs, with AMOEBA showing a richer conformational space. Focusing on key structural markers related to the oxyanion hole stability, we observe an asymmetry between protomers. One of them appears less structured resembling the experimentally inactive monomer for which a 6 μs simulation was performed as a basis for comparison. Results highlight the plasticity of the Mpro active site. The C-terminal end of its less structured protomer is shown to oscillate between several states, being able to interact with the other protomer, potentially modulating its activity. Active and distal site volumes are found to be larger in the most active protomer within our AMOEBA simulations compared to non-PFFs as additional cryptic pockets are uncovered. A second 17 μs AMOEBA simulation is performed with protonated His172 residues mimicking lower pH. Data show the protonation impact on the destructuring of the oxyanion loop. We finally analyze the solvation patterns around key histidine residues. The confined AMOEBA polarizable water molecules are able to explore a wide range of dipole moments, going beyond bulk values, leading to a water molecule count consistent with experimental data. Results suggest that the use of PFFs could be critical in drug discovery to accurately model the complexity of the molecular interactions structuring Mpro.

Project description:Although France was one of the most affected European countries by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the dynamics of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) movement within France, but also involving France in Europe and in the world, remain only partially characterized in this timeframe. Here, we analyzed GISAID deposited sequences from January 1 to December 31, 2020 (n = 638,706 sequences at the time of writing). To tackle the challenging number of sequences without the bias of analyzing a single subsample of sequences, we produced 100 subsamples of sequences and related phylogenetic trees from the whole dataset for different geographic scales (worldwide, European countries, and French administrative regions) and time periods (from January 1 to July 25, 2020, and from July 26 to December 31, 2020). We applied a maximum likelihood discrete trait phylogeographic method to date exchange events (i.e., a transition from one location to another one), to estimate the geographic spread of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions and lineages into, from and within France, Europe, and the world. The results unraveled two different patterns of exchange events between the first and second half of 2020. Throughout the year, Europe was systematically associated with most of the intercontinental exchanges. SARS-CoV-2 was mainly introduced into France from North America and Europe (mostly by Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, Belgium, and Germany) during the first European epidemic wave. During the second wave, exchange events were limited to neighboring countries without strong intercontinental movement, but Russia widely exported the virus into Europe during the summer of 2020. France mostly exported B.1 and B.1.160 lineages, respectively, during the first and second European epidemic waves. At the level of French administrative regions, the Paris area was the main exporter during the first wave. But, for the second epidemic wave, it equally contributed to virus spread with Lyon area, the second most populated urban area after Paris in France. The main circulating lineages were similarly distributed among the French regions. To conclude, by enabling the inclusion of tens of thousands of viral sequences, this original phylodynamic method enabled us to robustly describe SARS-CoV-2 geographic spread through France, Europe, and worldwide in 2020.

Dataset Information

Adaptive Preferential Sampling in Phylodynamics With an Application to SARS-CoV-2.

Publications

Adaptive Preferential Sampling in Phylodynamics With an Application to SARS-CoV-2.

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