Assessing spread risk of COVID-19 within and beyond China in early 2020

ABSTRACT: A novel coronavirus emerged in Wuhan in late 2019 and has caused the COVID-19 pandemic announced by the World Health Organization on March 12, 2020. This study was originally conducted in January 2020 to estimate the potential risk and geographic range of COVID-19 spread within and beyond China at the early stage of the pandemic. A series of connectivity and risk analyses based on domestic and international travel networks were conducted using historical aggregated mobile phone data and air passenger itinerary data. We found that the cordon sanitaire of Wuhan was likely to have occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving the city, with travellers departing into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China. We estimated that 59,912 air passengers, of which 834

SUBMITTER: Lai S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9411104 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature