Monitoring COVID-19 in Colombia during the first year of the pandemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

COVID-19 cases in Medellín, the second largest city in Colombia, were monitored during the first year of the pandemic using both mathematical models based on transmission theory and surveillance from each observed epidemic phase.

Design and methods

Expected cases were estimated using mandatory reporting data from Colombia's national epidemiological surveillance system from March 7, 2020 to March 7, 2021. Initially, the range of daily expected cases was estimated using a Borel-Tanner stochastic model and a deterministic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model. A subsequent expanded version of the SIR model was used to include asymptomatic cases, severe cases and deaths. The moving average, standard deviation, and goodness of fit of estimated cases relative to conf

SUBMITTER: Ospina J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9425916 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature