Estimating and forecasting the burden and spread of Colombia's SARS-CoV2 first wave.

ABSTRACT: Following the rapid dissemination of COVID-19 cases in Colombia in 2020, large-scale non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented as national emergencies in most of the country's municipalities, starting with a lockdown on March 20th, 2020. Recently, approaches that combine movement data (measured as the number of commuters between units), metapopulation models to describe disease dynamics subdividing the population into Susceptible-Exposed-Asymptomatic-Infected-Recovered-Diseased and statistical inference algorithms have been pointed as a practical approach to both nowcast and forecast the number of cases and deaths. We used an iterated filtering (IF) framework to estimate the model transmission parameters using the reported data across 281 municipalities from March to late Oc

SUBMITTER: Cascante-Vega J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9427755 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature