The impact of HIV and tuberculosis interventions on South African adult tuberculosis trends, 1990-2019: a mathematical modeling analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

To quantify the South African adult tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality attributable to HIV between 1990 and 2019 and to estimate the reduction in TB incidence due to directly observed therapy, antiretroviral therapy (ART), isoniazid preventive therapy, increased TB screening, and Xpert MTB/RIF.

Methods

We developed a dynamic TB transmission model for South Africa. A Bayesian approach was used to calibrate the model to South African-specific data sources. Counterfactual scenarios were simulated to estimate TB incidence and mortality attributable to HIV and the impact of interventions on TB incidence.

Results

Between 1990 and 2019, 8.8 million (95% confidence interval [CI] 8.3-9.3 million) individuals developed TB, and 2.1 million (95% CI 2.0-2.2 milli

SUBMITTER: Kubjane M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9439958 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature