Dataset Information

The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation - A global multi-city analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background and aim

The associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological factors are scientifically debated. Several studies have been conducted worldwide, with inconsistent findings. However, often these studies had methodological issues, e.g., did not exclude important confounding factors, or had limited geographic or temporal resolution. Our aim was to quantify associations between temporal variations in COVID-19 incidence and meteorological variables globally.

Methods

We analysed data from 455 cities across 20 countries from 3 February to 31 October 2020. We used a time-series analysis that assumes a quasi-Poisson distribution of the cases and incorporates distributed lag non-linear modelling for the exposure associations at the city-level while considering effects of autocorrelation, long-term trends, and day of the week. The confounding by governmental measures was accounted for by incorporating the Oxford Governmental Stringency Index. The effects of daily mean air temperature, relative and absolute humidity, and UV radiation were estimated by applying a meta-regression of local estimates with multi-level random effects for location, country, and climatic zone.

Results

We found that air temperature and absolute humidity influenced the spread of COVID-19 over a lag period of 15 days. Pooling the estimates globally showed that overall low temperatures (7.5 °C compared to 17.0 °C) and low absolute humidity (6.0 g/m³ compared to 11.0 g/m³) were associated with higher COVID-19 incidence (RR temp =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.08; 1.64 and RR AH =1.33 with 95%CI: 1.12; 1.57). RH revealed no significant trend and for UV some evidence of a positive association was found. These results were robust to sensitivity analysis. However, the study results also emphasise the heterogeneity of these associations in different countries.

Conclusion

Globally, our results suggest that comparatively low temperatures and low absolute humidity were associated with increased risks of COVID-19 incidence. However, this study underlines regional heterogeneity of weather-related effects on COVID-19 transmission.

SUBMITTER: Nottmeyer L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9450475 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation - A global multi-city analysis.

Nottmeyer Luise L Armstrong Ben B Lowe Rachel R Abbott Sam S Meakin Sophie S O'Reilly Kathleen M KM von Borries Rosa R Schneider Rochelle R Royé Dominic D Hashizume Masahiro M Pascal Mathilde M Tobias Aurelio A Vicedo-Cabrera Ana Maria AM Lavigne Eric E Correa Patricia Matus PM Ortega Nicolás Valdés NV Kynčl Jan J Urban Aleš A Orru Hans H Ryti Niilo N Jaakkola Jouni J Dallavalle Marco M Schneider Alexandra A Honda Yasushi Y Ng Chris Fook Sheng CFS Alahmad Barrak B Carrasco-Escobar Gabriel G Holobâc Iulian Horia IH Kim Ho H Lee Whanhee W Íñiguez Carmen C Bell Michelle L ML Zanobetti Antonella A Schwartz Joel J Scovronick Noah N Coélho Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio MSZS Saldiva Paulo Hilario Nascimento PHN Diaz Magali Hurtado MH Gasparrini Antonio A Sera Francesco F

The Science of the total environment 20220907

<h4>Background and aim</h4>The associations between COVID-19 transmission and meteorological factors are scientifically debated. Several studies have been conducted worldwide, with inconsistent findings. However, often these studies had methodological issues, e.g., did not exclude important confounding factors, or had limited geographic or temporal resolution. Our aim was to quantify associations between temporal variations in COVID-19 incidence and meteorological variables globally.<h4>Methods< ...[more]

PMID: 36087670

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceAlthough UV radiation exposure is the conventionally reported risk factor for cutaneous melanoma, an alternative exposure is diagnostic scrutiny: the more physicians look for and biopsy moles, the more melanoma they find.ObjectiveTo assess the association of proxies for UV radiation exposure and diagnostic scrutiny with geographical patterns of melanoma incidence.Design, setting, and participantsThis was a cross-sectional ecological analysis of the 727 continental US counties reporting to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program (among a total of 3108 counties). Environmental data relevant to UV radiation exposure (from a variety of sources), Health Resources and Services Administration data relevant to diagnostic scrutiny, and SEER data on melanoma incidence among the non-Hispanic White population diagnosed with melanoma from 2012 through 2016 were combined. Data analysis was performed between January 2020 and July 2022.ExposuresThree UV radiation proxies (UV daily dose, cloud variability, and temperature variability) and 3 diagnostic scrutiny proxies (median household income, dermatologists, and primary care physician supply).Main outcomes and measuresMelanoma incidence (in situ and invasive cancers).ResultsIn total, 235 333 melanomas were diagnosed. Proxies for UV radiation exposure changed gradually across geography, while melanoma incidence and proxies for diagnostic scrutiny changed abruptly across contiguous counties. The UV daily dose, a variable the National Cancer Institute specifically developed for melanoma analyses, was uncorrelated with incidence (r = 0.03; P = .42). For context, smoking prevalence was highly correlated with lung cancer incidence in the same counties (r = 0.81; P < .001). Melanoma incidence was correlated with median household income (r = 0.43; P < .001). Counties with no dermatologists and shortages of primary care physicians had the lowest incidence, while counties amply supplied with both had the highest, despite having lower mean UV daily dose. There was little association between melanoma incidence and melanoma mortality (r = 0.09; P = .05), while the analogous association in lung cancer was strong (r = 0.96; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cross-sectional ecological study, the current geographical pattern of melanoma incidence across US counties was less associated with proxies for UV radiation exposure and more so with proxies for diagnostic scrutiny. Incidence-the fundamental epidemiologic measure of disease frequency-now had little association with the feared outcome of melanoma: death.

Project description:BackgroundPrevious literature suggests that higher ambient temperature may play a role in increasing the risk of suicide. However, no multi-country study has explored the shape of the association and the role of moderate and extreme heat across different locations.ObjectivesWe examined the short-term temperature-suicide relationship using daily time-series data collected for 341 locations in 12 countries for periods ranging from 4 to 40 y.MethodsWe conducted a two-stage meta-analysis. First, we performed location-specific time-stratified case-crossover analyses to examine the temperature-suicide association for each location. Then, we used a multivariate meta-regression to combine the location-specific lag-cumulative nonlinear associations across all locations and by country.ResultsA total of 1,320,148 suicides were included in this study. Higher ambient temperature was associated with an increased risk of suicide in general, and we observed a nonlinear association (inverted J-shaped curve) with the highest risk at 27°C. The relative risk (RR) for the highest risk was 1.33 (95% CI: 1.30, 1.36) compared with the risk at the first percentile. Country-specific results showed that the nonlinear associations were more obvious in northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan). The temperature with the highest risk of suicide ranged from the 87th to 88th percentiles in the northeast Asian countries, whereas this value was the 99th percentile in Western countries (Canada, Spain, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States) and South Africa, where nearly linear associations were estimated. The country-specific RRs ranged from 1.31 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.44) in the United States to 1.65 (95% CI: 1.40, 1.93) in Taiwan, excluding countries where the results were substantially uncertain.DiscussionOur findings showed that the risk of suicide increased with increasing ambient temperature in many countries, but to varying extents and not necessarily linearly. This temperature-suicide association should be interpreted cautiously, and further evidence of the relationship and modifying factors is needed. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP4898.

Project description:BackgroundDiarrhea remains a common infectious disease caused by various risk factors in developing countries. This study investigated the incidence rate and temporal associations between diarrhea and meteorological determinants in five regions of Surabaya, Indonesia.MethodMonthly diarrhea records from local governmental health facilities in Surabaya and monthly means of weather variables, including average temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity from Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysical Agency were collected from January 2018 to September 2020. The generalized additive model was employed to quantify the time lag association between diarrhea risk and extremely low (5th percentile) and high (95th percentile) monthly weather variations in the north, central, west, south, and east regions of Surabaya (lag of 0-2 months).ResultThe average incidence rate for diarrhea was 11.4 per 100,000 during the study period, with a higher incidence during rainy season (November to March) and in East Surabaya. This study showed that the weather condition with the lowest diarrhea risks varied with the region. The diarrhea risks were associated with extremely low and high temperatures, with the highest RR of 5.39 (95% CI 4.61, 6.17) in the east region, with 1 month of lag time following the extreme temperatures. Extremely low relative humidity increased the diarrhea risks in some regions of Surabaya, with the highest risk in the west region at lag 0 (RR = 2.13 (95% CI 1.79, 2.47)). Extremely high precipitation significantly affects the risk of diarrhea in the central region, at 0 months of lag time, with an RR of 3.05 (95% CI 2.09, 4.01).ConclusionThis study identified a high incidence of diarrhea in the rainy season and in the deficient developed regions of Surabaya, providing evidence that weather magnifies the adverse effects of inadequate environmental sanitation. This study suggests the local environmental and health sectors codevelop a weather-based early warning system and improve local sanitation practices as prevention measures in response to increasing risks of infectious diseases.

Dataset Information

The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation - A global multi-city analysis.

Background and aim

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

The association of COVID-19 incidence with temperature, humidity, and UV radiation - A global multi-city analysis.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets